Some Housing Markets Have Started To Fall

By Douglas A. McIntyre Published Jul 25, 9:23AM EDT

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Some Housing Markets Have Started To Fall — © Feverpitched / iStock via Getty Images

Corelogic’s real estate data are among the most carefully watched by experts. Each month, it looks at the national, state, and local markets. In its most recent report, it forecast prices from May 2022 to May 2023. The local market universe it covers includes 392 major metros.

The Corelogic report shows that several housing markets are already in trouble. These are measured by a 70% probability of decline with a confidence score of 50% to 70%. Four of the are in Washington state. They include Bremerton, Bellingham, Tacoma, and Olympia. The fifth market is Boise, ID.

The markets share another metric. Home prices in these cities have soared. Boise is often mentioned as the market where home prices have risen the most in the last two years.

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If the 2008-2009 recession is any indication, city home price decreases spread from market to market. The Great Recession was marked by a collapse of subprime mortgages. That will not happen again. Most mortgages taken out over the last decades are much less risky.

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The question is which markets carry the most risk of housing prices drops. Usually, these are the ones where prices rose the fastest and the most recently. The S&P Case Shiller home price index indicated home prices in most recent months were up over 20% year over year. Among the 20 largest markets it analyzes, home prices in Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami have risen much faster.

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The storm coming to the housing market is not just a surge of price decreases. It involves a surge in mortgage rates as well. A year ago, the rate on many 30-year fixed home loans was under 3%. That figure has risen to above 5%.

The foundation of home prices has already started to crumble. And, there are probably ways to forecast which cities face the greatest risk.

About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.