How Analysts Rate Alcoa After Earnings

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reported first-quarter results last Monday, beating earnings per share estimates by a nickel but falling short on revenues, compared with analysts’ estimates, and way short compared with the company’s revenues in the first quarter of 2015.

The company also lowered earnings per share guidance last week, saying that it did so “to better reflect aerospace market conditions and Firth Rixson performance.” We looked at what that might mean for Boeing and Airbus, but what it means for Alcoa is that its planned spin-off might not be as beneficial for shareholders as previously thought.

Alcoa plans to spin off its engineered products and solutions division into a new company to be called Arconic later this year. The spin-off was supposed to take advantage of rising demand for new commercial airplanes. But that demand has stalled, and Alcoa’s 2014 acquisition of jet-engine parts maker Firth Rixson has not been an unqualified success as a result.

Several analysts have weighed in with changes to their estimates and ratings on Alcoa. Here are some recent revisions and comments.
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Credit Suisse remains bullish on Alcoa with an Outperform rating and a price target of $13. The analysts said that based on their sum-of-the-parts calculation, Alcoa could support a valuation of $14 to $15 a share, given the outlook for commodity pricing.

According to a report from Dow Jones, analysts at JPMorgan are wary of the Arconic spin-off. Their conclusion is that the breakup will not “create significant additional value unless Alcoa is able to merge its upstream business with a similar-size upstream producer.” Comparisons with Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition of Precision Parts are not meaningful because Precision Parts’ EBITDA margins have been more than double those posted by the portions of Alcoa that will become Arconic.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch reiterated its Hold rating and $10.50 price target on Alcoa’s stock.

S&P Capital IQ cut its rating on the stock from Buy to Hold and lowered its price target from $10 to $9.50.

Analysts at Stifel maintained a Buy rating but cut their price target from $14 to $13 per share.

Alcoa’s stock closed Friday at $10.01, in a 52-week range of $6.14 to $14.29. The consensus price target on the stock is $10.58, but that may not include the most recent changes.