Why The Markets May Fall

Over the last three months, the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are up between 4% and 5%.

But, much of the corporate news is getting worse.

Oil stocks are under pressure. With crude below $55, that may not improve. A lot of the market’s move last year owe to big moves in Exxon (XOM), Conoco (COP), and Chevron (CVX).

Wall St. seems to be concerned about Detroit. GM (GM) had a huge run last year, up more than any other component in the Dow. Ford (F) has not been able to muster much in terms of investor enthusiasm. Investors are troubled that analysts forecasts a drop in overall vehicle sales this year, and the rising Toyota market share.

Big chip companies are under pressure. AMD (AMD) has warned that Q4 will be dirt. This took its stock down 11%. And, if the short-fall was triggered by a price war with Intel (INTC), what does that mean for the larger company’s shares.

With the world’s largest business software company, SAP (SAP) warning on earnings, the markets are concerned that enterprise software sales are slowing. That, in turn, is hurting rival Oracle (ORCL).

Wal-Mart (WMT) can hardly get out of its own way. Ditto for Home Depot (HD). The concern about these companies tends to weigh on retail like an anchor.

And, of course, the cell phone industry, including Texas Instruments (TXN) and Motorola (MOT)  is sinking on concerns that almost all handset sales are poor margin deals.

That pretty much leaves Apple (AAPL) to keep the markets moving up. If they only understood that, the feds would leave him alone.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at [email protected]. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.