Microsoft (MSFT): Three Views On Vista

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

With earnings season nearly over, we can revisit an earlier question. Namely, what’s going on with Microsoft’s (MSFT – Annual Report) Vista rollout. It was supposed to usher in a tech renaissance, but sort of sputtered coming out of the gate. Is is building up speed or looking like a dud? Here’s what some of the industry leaders are saying:

Our results were primarily driven by strength in our core products. Windows Vista and 2007 Microsoft Office System will have a multi-year impact, and both are off to a very good start.

Revenue growth in the third quarter was 32% and even if you were to exclude the $1.7 billion in recognition of previously deferred revenue associated predominately with our Technology Guarantee Programs for Windows and Office, our revenue growth would have been an extremely good 17%.

(Excerpt from full MSFT conference call transcript)

Of course, Microsoft is talking its own book. Some of the apparent strength was due to the better than expected mix of premium edition sales rather than broad-based adoption. Hewlett Packard (HPQ – Annual Report) was more circumspect:

I think it is still too early to tell whether that will be the case long run, but we have begun to see some help from Vista, and I think it was helpful to us in the quarter. But this is really a more of a longer-running opportunity we see as we go forward as opposed to something that was just unique for the quarter.

(Excerpt from full HPQ conference call transcript)

Meanwhile, CDW Corp. (CDWC) sounded almost dour:

With regard to Microsoft Vista, we have not seen significant adoption by our customers in the first quarter of 2007. While we are promoting Vista and educating customers as they prepare their adoption plan, we continue to provide support to Windows XP.

(Excerpt from full CDWC conference call transcript)

With the mixed reviews, it is no wonder investors wonder.

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