IMF Sets Meager Global Output Targets For 2009 & 2010

By Douglas A. McIntyre Updated Apr 27, 11:31PM EDT · Published Apr 22, 12:57PM EDT

Follow 24/7 Wall St. on Google

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

The International Monetary Fund is out with yet another gloomy projection today. We had already seen the reports of another $4.1 trillion in writedowns being needed, but this morning the IMF took the global world output projection for all of 2009 as being -1.3%. It sees a need for sustained policy response to tackle the financial sector and to support demand. The IMF feels that growth can resume in 2010, with strong policies in place.

As you will see in the chart below, the US is now expected to contract at a rate of -2.8% in 2009. This is actually “better” than the advanced economies projections of -3.8%. For 2010, the IMF sees a output at 0.0% for the United States and for the advanced economies. The “Euro area” is projected to see a contraction rate of -4.2% for 2009 and -0.4% in 2010.
imf-2009-2010-projection-chart

If you look at the table, you will see that the only growth prospects are being seen in China and India. The IMF sees 6.5% growth in 2009 and 7.5% growth in 2010 in China; and it puts India’s growth at 4.5% in 2009 and 5.6% in 2010. This sounds like good news for the “Chindia” region, but those growth rates are actually just keeping pace with what is needed to sustain the local economies after you add up the economic expansion and the expenses of each major country. Added up, these two countries account for only about one-third of the world’s total population.

Many economists and stock forecasters have been calling for a relative immunity in Brazil, yet the IMF disagrees. The IMF is forecasting Brazil’s growth as a contraction of -1.3% for 2009 and then a gain of 2.2% for 2010.

For all of these projections to come to pass, the IMF is noting that forceful action is needed on the financial and macroeconomic policy fronts. It also argues for open trade over protectionism.

The new report also notes that unemployment will peak only toward the end of 2010, and should decrease after that. The economic growth that the IMF is being forecast as being sluggish when compared to past recoveries.

JON C. OGG

About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.