Prominent economists, ignoring trouble in Europe and persistently high unemployment, expect 2010 to be as close to a banner year as the US economy has seen in four years.
The National Association of Business reports that its survey of members in late January and February. The group reported “Real GDP growth of 3.1% is projected over the four quarters of 2010, nearly identical to last November’s prediction of 3.2%. The same pace is also expected for 2011.”
Seventy percent of the economists believe that bank restrictions will become less restrictive this year. The balance of those surveyed believe that bank earnings and regulations will keep money tight.
If the minority report is correct, the economy may make little or no recovery this year. Consumer and small business access to capital are still the key engine to the recovery because they, in turn, drive job creation.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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