Chinese and Indian workers believe that they have bright futures and that their employers and superiors will take care of them. That is the conclusion of a recent survey by Kenexa, an employment research group.
Employee confidence in China is 7% unfavorable, which is an odd way to express the matter, but is the way this research expresses opinions. In India, the number is 5%. The related number in the US is 12%. The figure gets worse in the UK and Japan where the figures are 16% and 23% respectively.
“Personal confidence is defined as employees feeling there is a promising future for them at their organization, that they won’t be laid off, feeling the organization is helping them develop the skills they need in the future, believing other organizations are hiring people with similar skills and experience, and feeling that if they left their current employer they could find a similar job utilizing their skills and paying at least similarly to their current position,” according to the study.
The results are from a group of more than 16,000 workers from 12 countries.
The study does not say much about the reasons for the results. They are almost certainly tied to GDP growth and unemployment in the countries which are part of the poll. That would be logical. It is hard for people to have confidence when a barely tethered sword is above their heads.
The real concern that the survey should cause is how the attitudes of workers affect the broader economy. What those concerns might be can only be guessed because they are not addressed in the poll.
Workers who do not trust their employers to take care of them are less loyal than those who trust their bosses. Japanese and American workers cannot easily find new work and can become sullen and fearful.
The other conclusion that the research might yield is that worried employees are less likely to be aggressive spenders. One of the questions Kenexa puts to those polled is whether people have “a promising future for one’s self.” People who are worried about their futures are probably not going to do more than save or pay down their debts.
The Kenexa data points to what will likely continue to be a rapid rise of consumer spending in India and China. That will have a positive effect on the trade balances of the older Western economies like the US. The timing of those trends could be difficult for America in particular. Consumer spending in the US has already dropped off and it is only now picking up quickly in China.
The balancing act between consumer spending in the developing world and the US is tilted away from the rapid expansion of the exports of American goods and services. US businesses may have to wait out the period between when consumption in the US dropped and when its rises to a meaningful level overseas.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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