Jobs Crisis More Long-Term Than Unemployment Rates Show

Worries about whether people will have jobs in the months and years ahead likely undermine consumer spending, the most critical part of gross domestic product (GDP), as much as the habits of those already out of work. Both groups are reluctant to buy any more than the essentials as they guard against having no income at all. Each is likely to pay down debt and save monthly for the same reasons. No matter what the case, all of these habits erode the foundation of economic growth.

A new Gallup poll shows just how deep the problem of anxiety about future employment can be. In a new study, the research firm reports:

Eighteen percent of U.S. workers say it is “very likely” or “fairly likely” they will lose their job or be laid off in the next year, more than said so prior to the 2008 economic downturn, although similar to more recent years.

Clearly, the impression that the recession is not entirely over has stayed with much of the working population. Among the reasons for this are the accurate feelings that the U.S. economy has slowed again, that additions to payrolls have disappeared, that new and higher taxes may cripple the expansion and that austerity could cost public and private employees alike their jobs. People who follow the news can tell that much of the world’s economy has fallen into a recession and that the United States will be affected.

As recently has the start of this year, it appeared that GDP growth could rise above 3% as the year passed and that both consumer activity and export increases would trigger more expansion. Car sales data have been used as proof of that, as have the resurgence of home price sales and price increases of consumer goods. However, there is a suspicion that low interest rates may be behind some of this activity, and that the progress will be short lived if confidence erodes quickly.

The jobs problem is not over at all. That is true if economists look at current numbers. They also ought to look at the deep, long-term worries of workers as well.

Methodology: Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted April 4 to 7, 2013, with a random sample of 499 adults, aged 18 and older, employed full or part time, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.