Economic Data Shows Inflation As Jobs Still Suffer

There were several key economic data reports issued simultaneously this morning at 8:30 AM EST.  The readings are a bit mixed, although there is less good news than many might have hoped for in jobs and in inflation.

The Labor Department’s data on weekly jobless claims does likely have some seasonality issues, but that came in at an adjusted rise of 35,000 to 445,000.  That prior figure was only 409,000 a week ago and Bloomberg had consensus of 405,000.  The army of unemployed as measured by the continuing jobless claims has a week lag, but that came down substantially with a drop of 248,000 to 3.879 million from a higher revision of 4.127 million last week.

Inflation is starting to show itself, at least on the producer side for December. The Producer Price Index came in at a headline gain of +1.1% on the headline and only +0.2% on the core-PPI that takes out food and energy and other volatile components.  Bloomberg had estimates of +0.9% on the headline and +0.2% on the core rate.  Where the inflationary picture comes into play is in the year over year readings.  The headline PPI gain from a year ago is a sharp rise of +4.0% and the core-PPI that takes out the food and energy and other volatile components showed a year over year gain of +1.3%.

The November Trade Balance, you know it as the Trade Deficit, came in at -$38.3 billion rather than expectations of closer to -$40 billion.  Bloomberg was expecting -$41 billion.

Of course there is a measure of seasonality here and some of the pressure may not last.  Still, this is signaling a less robust jobs market than many are hoping for while there is a big price change if you look at the prices this year versus last.

JON C. OGG