10 Unexpected Winners From Oil Release (FDX, UAL, AMR, JBHT, WMT, HD, GPS, AAPL, RIMM, KR)

West Texas Intermediate Crude is bleeding today now that the IEA has made a coordinated release of 60 million barrels of oil.  Half of that will come from the United States and the rest from almost 30 other nations.  On last look, oil was down $4.32 at $91.09 and that is at the lowest level in 2011.  Sadly, the global growth issue from weakness in Europe, weakness out of Japan, and the slowing mechanisms in place equally in China and India, has the broad market down over 200 points on the DJIA to under 11,900.  The NASDAQ is down over 33 points to 2,635 and the S&P is down 21 points to 1,266.

Don’t jump out the window.  Not yet, better yet not ever.  There are actually some bright spots from this move.  Cheaper gas, more disposable income.  Good for retailers, good for transportation.  Before you define the term winner, let’s assume that these “winners” are actually relative winners.  Much of the drop in the broader markets is from oil and energy shares.  Many tech names are down with it though.

If one group outside of the retail segment wins from lower oil prices it is the airline sector.  FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX), actually an air shipper, is up another 0.7% at $92.08 after beating earnings yesterday.  United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL) is up a whopping 5.4% at $25.28 and AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) is up 5% at $6.04.

Frankly, we are very surprised not to see JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) and other truckers on the list of gainers.  Its shares are down 0.6% at $45.45. Still, maybe this is a relative win.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is down, but it is a relative winner as it is “only” down 0.25% at $52.88.  The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) is also higher with shares up 0.9% at $35.27.  Less spent on gas, more money to spend on home improvements!

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is hard to consider a winner under almost any circumstance.  Yet it shows up as a value stock now.  The big consideration here is that lower gas and lower commodity prices may lower its bulging cotton prices that it disclosed with its most recent warning.  Shares are up a whole penny at $17.75 but it was briefly above $18.00 this morning.

Is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) becoming more dependent upon the economy and broad consumer discretionary spending?  Perhaps, particularly if it is going to release newer versions of its hot products faster than many get around to upgrading the first time.  Its chart still remains troubling.  Still, shares are up 0.35% at $323.70.  This is an unexpected winner.  What about Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM)?  It is actually up 1.4% today, but we think a spurring of the economy and a lowering of gasoline prices is not likely to force new PlayBook and Blackberry purchases.

The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) is another winner.  It has exposure to gasoline prices as part of its customer loyalty card rewards.  It is up 0.37% at $24.59.

There is also “Two If By Sea” in Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL).  Its largest variable cost outside of food is fuel,  Carnival shares are up 1.3% at $36.84 so far today.

What is interesting is that the logic behind the winners does not add up universally.  It is as if investors are randomly picking winners as part of the move.

JON C. OGG