Consumer Confidence Soars

The tug of war between proofs of recession and recovery received some weight on the recovery side. The Consumer Confidence Index soared in November, at a rate last posted in 2003.

The Conference Board reported that

The Index now stands at 56.0 (1985=100), up from 40.9 in October. The Present Situation Index increased to 38.3 from 27.1. The Expectations Index rose to 67.8 from 50.0.

And

Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions improved in November. Those stating business conditions are “good” increased to 13.3 percent from 11.2 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” declined to 38.2 percent from 43.7 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also more upbeat. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased to 5.8 percent from 3.6 percent, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 42.1 percent from 46.9 percent.

Consumers’ short-term outlook, which had declined last month, was less negative in November. The proportion of consumers anticipating business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 13.6 percent from 10.2 percent, while those anticipating business conditions will worsen declined to 15.8 percent from 21.3 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the job market also improved. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead rose to 12.9 percent from 10.8 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 24.1 percent from 27.6 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes rose to 14.9 percent from 11.1 percent.

The news comes the same day as a downbeat report from S&P/Case-Shiller that showed the home market in the 20 largest American cities is still in sharp decline.

The next two piece of information that will inform sentiment about the economy will be car sales on December 1 and November unemployment on the December 2.

Douglas A. McIntyre