Uptick in Philly Fed Economic Data

The so-called “Philly Fed” reading is a current business barometer because it tracks the month of January rather than looking back at 2011 data.  This economic measurement is issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Today’s reading of 7.3 is up from a reading of 6.8 in December.  The good news is that it grew and it is still a “growth” number since it is above the 0.0 line.  The bad news is that Dow Jones had a consensus target of 10.0 and Bloomberg had a consensus expectation of 10.0 as well.

It turns out that the growth trend has some slower reading in the sub-index measurements.  New orders slipped to 6.9 from 10.7 and shipments fell down to 5.7 from 9.1 previously.  The labor component showed a very modest uptick to a level of 11.6 from 11.5 in the prior month.  Something else to consider is a bump in the work week to 5.0 from 2.8, although some of that may be seasonality. Prices paid rose nominally to 31.8 from 30.4, which might contradict this week’s PPI data from December issued by the Labor Department on Wednesday.  Prices received rose to 11.2 from 0.3, indicating a slightly higher price move (if universal around the U.S.)  than what the CPI from the Labor Department showed just this morning.

We will have to see the more regional and national data from the ISM before making any broader economic trend analysis on growth and inflation.