The International Air Transport Association, the industry’s major association and source of much research about the sector says that 2011 was a particularly good one for the industry, especially as the year closed. This year may not be as good. The reasons are obvious. The first is the slowdown in Europe, and it dwarf all other threats
The agency said in its new report on the airlines sector worldwide that
that full year 2011 passenger demand rose 5.9% compared to 2010, in line with long-term growth trends. In contrast, cargo markets contracted by 0.7% for the year; but recorded positive demand growth in December of 0.2%. Growth in demand lagged capacity increases at 6.3% (passenger) and 4.1% (cargo) putting downward pressure on load factors. The average passenger load factor for 2011 was 78.1%, down from 78.3% in 2010, while the freight load factor was just 45.9%, down from 48.1% in 2010.
It is not clear whether that means consumers are still sanguine about the economy while businesses which ship are not. Results from Fedex and UPS indicate that company demand is still strong.
“Improving business confidence and encouraging news from the US economy are heartening developments. But it is far too early to start predicting a soft landing for 2012. The euro zone crisis is far from over. Failure to achieve a durable solution will have dire consequences for economies around the world. And it would most certainly tip the airline industry into the red.”
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