Unadjusted Unemployment Rate Rises in July — Gallup

The latest Gallup tracking survey on U.S. unemployment puts the unadjusted U.S. unemployment rate at 8.2% in July, up from 8% in June, but down from 8.8% in July of 2011. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Gallup survey puts the July unemployment rate at 8%, up from an adjusted rate of 7.8% in June.

If there is some good news from the survey, it is that underemployment declined for the third consecutive month to an unadjusted rate of 17.1%, the lowest number Gallup has recorded since it began its tracking survey in 2010. The number of part-time workers seeking full-time employment fell to 8.9% in July, down from 9.2% in July 2011.

The percentage of workers with full-time employment for an employer rose to the survey’s highest level ever — 66.6%. But accounting for the drop in the number of people in the workforce essentially erases the gain according to Gallup.

Gallup concludes that tomorrow’s report from the Labor Department on nonfarm payrolls will remain flat at best, showing a U.S. unemployment rate of 8.2%. The survey goes on to state the obvious:

If there is to be true improvement in the employment situation in the coming months, unemployment will need to decline, and the percentage of people in the population participating in the workforce at their desired capacity will need to increase.

Paul Ausick