Tropical Storm Ernesto Becomes Hurricane Ernesto

The 2:00 PM update from the National Hurricane Center now has what was Tropical Storm Ernesto as Hurricane Ernesto.  That is not exactly good news for anyone who monitors offshore oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, nor is it good news for any of the coastal residents from the Yucatan on up to the United States.  If there is any good news here it is that the projected path puts the storm as hitting the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico on Tuesday night, then rolling Northwest or West-Northwest and then going back into the Gulf of Mexico before landing in Mexico on Friday morning.  If that trajectory remains, then the offshore U.S. oil drilling rig infrastructure is under no real risks.

We would note that earlier on in this hurricane season we have seen drastically different paths for storms compared to the original forecasts. The outlook is below, along with the image showing the expected path of Hurricane Ernesto.

JON C. OGG

Here is the latest discussion and 48-hour outlook:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * COZUMEL * THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL…INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS * NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA * CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK —————————— AT 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY… AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY…AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM.