Is the iPhone the Only Product That Can Add 0.5% to GDP?

A JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) analyst speculated that sales of the new Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 5 could add “between 0.25% and 0.5% to annualized economic growth in the fourth quarter.” Eight million iPhones would have to be sold in the fourth quarter. The margin on each phone would need to be $400 to Apple. That would add $3.2 billion to GDP for the period. The math and the results are almost enough to take one’s breath away. And, if the JP Morgan speculation is worthwhile, so is an analysis of what else could raise GDP by 0.5%. Three or four other sets of transactions that each have the same effect as the iPhone might in combination improve GDP by 2% or more.

The new version of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows — Windows 8 — might have sales great enough to add a few billion dollars to GDP. Software generally has a huge margins, probably higher than Apple hardware. The new version of Windows is supposed to be released on October 26. That leaves nine weeks of sales that could give GDP a substantial lift. Upgrades to new Microsoft operating systems usually cause a rush of sales at first.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) may find that demand for oil and oil by-products like gasoline go up much more than expected. Or the price of these products may rise if crude prices spike. Exxon’s annual sales are more than $450 billion (much of that is overseas, so it does not count), or $110 billion a quarter. It would not take much for that number to go up $5 billion or $6 billion. Of course, the margins on the oil-based products would have to be strong to add $3.2 billion to GDP. But, add into that the potential impact on Exxon’s smaller rivals — ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX). Then the numbers really add up.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s (NYSE: WMT) new low-cost or no-cost layaway programs might bring in a surge of new customers in the United States. Walmart’s revenue last year was almost $450 billion. Most of that was in the America. If layaway works to spur Walmart sales, similar programs at Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) divisions Sears and Kmart would press GDP even higher. Of course, retailers have low margins, so the effect would probably be small.

The Big Three automakers might do better than expected in the final quarter of the year. Car sales have run well above forecasts in many months. And there are plenty of new models. General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler may sell several tens of thousand more cars than expected. The amount these companies make on most of the vehicles they sell are in the thousands of dollars. Add in the U.S. sales of Honda Motor Co. (NYSE: HMC), Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) and the other auto manufacturers that offer cars and light trucks in America, and GDP might be pushed higher by yet one more series of events.

The iPhone might rescue the U.S. economy, but so might some other products — believe it or not.

Douglas A. McIntyre