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September Trade Deficit Narrower Than Every Expectation

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By Jon C. Ogg Published
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The U.S. Trade Balance, aka the deficit, managed to come in much more narrow than expected in the month of September. A deficit of $41.5 billion is still wide, but it was well under the Bloomberg consensus of $45.4 billion. Bloomberg even had a range of $42 billion to $46.5 billion. In short, the report was narrower than every single economist was calling for.

Petroleum appears to be the main factor along with a recovery in exports. August was revised to a deficit of $43.8 billion from $44.2 billion. Exports were up by more than 3% after having been down by 1% in August, while imports were up 1.5% after a 0.2% drop was reported in August. The petroleum deficit was $21.7 billion in September, versus $23.5 billion in August, while the nonpetroleum goods deficit grew to $35.2 billion from $34.9 billion. More proof that we are service economy: services surplus rose to $15.9 billion in September from $15.1 billion in August.

Unfortunately, the trade balance just does not move the needle any longer. It is very small when compared to the budget deficit of the government, and the trade balance has not impacted the financial markets for years and years now.

JON C. OGG

Photo of Jon C. Ogg
About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

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