Bob Doll of Nuveen Issues 10 Predictions for 2013

Doll is hopeful on the outlook for the global economy and risk assets in the year ahead. 2013 will see the United States experience a more ‘muddle-through economy’ and a ‘grindhigher’ equity market.

Doll sees US multi-nationals outperforming domestically-focused companies in 2013. Year-over-year dividend growth has been in the double-digit percentage territory since mid-2011 and in 2013 Doll sees that pattern continuing. Risks still revolve around the aftermath of the fiscal cliff and unresolved imbalances in Europe.

Doll’s 10 PREDICTIONS FOR 2013 are as follows:

1. The U.S. economy continues to muddle through with nominal growth below 5% for the seventh year in a row

2. Europe begins to exit recession by the end of year as the ECB eases and financial stresses lessen

3. The U.S. yield curve steepens as financial risks recede and deflationary threats lessen

4. U.S. stocks record a new all-time high as stocks advance for the fifth year in a row

5. Emerging market equities outperform developed market equities

6. After two years of underperformance, U.S. multinationals outperform domestically focused companies

7. Large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks and cyclical companies outperform defensive companies

8. Dividends increase at a double-digit rate as payout ratios rise

9. A nascent U.S. manufacturing renaissance continues, powered by cheap natural gas

10. The U.S. government passes a $2–3 trillion ten-year budget deal