Short Interest Plays Tricks Ahead of and into SolarCity Earnings

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By Jon C. Ogg Updated Published
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Maybe Elon Musk is the modern real-world version of Tony Stark as you are seeing all over the internet. As for his SolarCity Corp. (NASDAQ: SCTY), the still relatively new solar power installation outfit reported a hefty loss in the first quarter. As you will see below, it is very difficult to analyze the report and short sellers have been a serious influence here.

The good news is that SolarCity has now expanded its customer base by just over 100% from a year ago to over 57,400 customers. The company further said that it has now boosted its long-term contracted cash flows to $1.22 billion. That customer base represents 14% growth on a sequential quarterly basis. Estimated nominal contracted payments remaining rose by 10% sequentially to $1.222 billion.

SolarCity’s core operating lease revenue was $15.1 million, up 85% from a year ago, and total revenue grew 21% year-over-year to $30.0 million.

Gross Profit was up 25% from a year ago to $12.7 million, yielding a gross profit margin of 42%. Total operating expenses rose to $34.5 million versus $24.7 million a year ago, while the loss from operations was wider at $21.8 million versus $14.6 million a year ago. Despite posting a net loss, the net increase in cash was $40.197 million in the first quarter of 2013 versus a gain of over $110 million in the fourth quarter of 2012 due to equity being issued in the last two quarters.

Guidance is being put as follows: $16 to $18 million in operating lease revenue, $5 to $10 million in solar energy systems sale revenue, $38 to $42 million in operating expenses, and 40% to 55% in gross margin. All guidance is on a GAAP basis, and the company earlier noted that it feels non-GAAP measurements better reflect its long-term efforts.

Shares were up a whopping 24% at $35.88 in regular trading ahead of earnings and the stock is giving back about 5% at $34.25 in the after-hours. SolarCity’s market cap at the close was $2.7 billion post-IPO range is $9.20 to $39.00 and that high was hit on Monday. NASDAQ showed that the April 30 short interest was a record high at 3.58 million shares.

As a reminder, Elon Musk is the Chairman at SolarCity. The co-founders are CEO Lyndon Rive and COO/CTO Peter Rive. Before considering any changes from analysts, investors need to know that SolarCity is expected to keep losing money. Sales are expected to rise over 30% to $169.4 million in 2013 and are expected to rise over 50% to $258 million in 2014. That being said, Thomson Reuters has the consensus earnings estimates at -$1.30 EPS in 2013 and -$1.10 EPS in 2014.

Be advised that analysts had only a consensus price target of $23 without knowing the impact from earnings. The highest analyst price target was only $27, so investors will have to expect that valuation downgrades are coming or that analysts will try to chase their price targets higher.

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About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

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