This year is nearing the halfway mark and analysts are beginning to project their biggest winners and losers on the year. S&P Capital IQ recently released a report regarding the performance of companies in terms of earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. In fact, the firm has listed its top 10 picks in each category. The analysts on the call for S&P Capital IQ were Michael Thompson, Lindsey Bell and Kenneth Leon.
S&P Capital IQ considers the biggest winners in its report to be Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) and Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), as the only companies expected to produce top 10 growth rates for both earnings and revenue in 2015. Gilead is now even trading like a value stock, while Salesforce.com comes with a valuation that sometimes makes even the most aggressive growth investors wonder just how high it can go on its own.
From an earnings per share perspective, five of the top companies are airlines or auto manufacturers. This was Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV), American Airlines Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL), and Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) in the skies. The auto leaders featured were General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F). The key driver (or lift-off) behind these earnings is the current trend of oil prices.
In terms of revenue growth, health care is the most heavily represented sector, as it accounts for seven of the top 10 companies, according to S&P Capital IQ. Four companies come from the biotech subsector: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN), Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) and Gilead Sciences. The remaining three come from the pharmaceutical subsector: Actavis PLC (NYSE: ACT), Perrigo PLC (NYSE: PRGO) and Mylan N.V. (NASDAQ: MYL).
Although crude oil prices have recently passed $60 per barrel for benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI), they remain 43% below the peak of $107.26 reached in June 2014. Airline margins improve on low oil and fuel prices. These companies have also benefited from industry consolidation, which has reduced competition and capacity, making it easier for airlines to raise fares and increase passenger yields.
With expected growth of 38.9%, transportation — including airlines — is driving the industrial sector’s 6.2% expected growth for 2015. In 2014, industrials’ earnings grew 10.5%, with transportation generating 15.6% growth.
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As for the previously mentioned auto companies, they are benefiting from pent-up vehicle demand, given lower oil prices and an elevated average vehicle age of 11.4 years. At the same time, consumers have also increased their interest in sport utility vehicles (SUVs), which carry higher margins, due to lower oil prices. The consumer discretionary sector is expected to have the third-best growth in 2015 at 11.3%.
To round out the top 10 earnings list, S&P Capital IQ listed Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS). The reasoning behind this is that these companies are either operating in high-growth end or are reorganizing their businesses to better address the operating environment.
Below is a table listing the top 10 companies based on expected 2015 EPS growth:
Note that the market caps listed on this table are as of May 18.
Southwest Airlines shares were at $36.68 on Friday. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $54.36 and a 52-week trading range of $25.33 to $47.17.
Shares of American Airlines were trading at $42.32, in a 52-week trading range of $28.10 to $56.20. The consensus analyst price target is $67.30.
Adobe shares were at $80.26. The 52-week trading range is $58.51 to $80.74, and the consensus price target is $86.17.
Salesforce.com shares were at $72.74, in a 52-week range of $50.21 to $78.46. The stock has a consensus price target of $79.91. News of the ups and downs of a potential Microsoft (or other) acquisition of Salesforce.com has created additional gyrations of late in this stock.
Both subsectors of healthcare are continuing to be stimulated by acquisitions and new drug approvals. S&P Capital IQ only included companies that have consistently completed acquisitions as a normal course of business in this analysis. Note that the firm excluded companies with large one-time acquisitions.
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Health care was the big leader for the first-quarter earnings growth with 20.4%, which was amazingly enough being after reporting growth of 24.2% for the fourth quarter of 2014. Analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expect the sector to lead earnings growth in 2015 with 11.5%, driven by pharma, medical, biotech (the sector that keeps chugging) and life sciences.
Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB), Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Salesforce.com complete the revenue growth list. The social media giant, Facebook, is benefiting from mobile advertising revenue increases and will be boosted by monetization efforts surrounding video and Instagram. Netflix is a subscriber growth story with relatively modest pricing power. Both the U.S. and international markets represent areas of significant growth for the online movie and show streamer. Salesforce.com has done some digital marketing solution acquisitions but is primarily generating growth from its cloud-computing platform and offerings.
Below is a table listing the top 10 companies based on expected 2015 revenue growth:
Note that the market caps on this table are as of May 18.
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Vertex shares were trading at $125.00 on Friday. The consensus analyst price target is $137.70, and the 52-week trading range is $63.68 to $137.50.
Shares of Actavis were at $300.65, in a 52-week range of $201.91 to $317.72. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $347.84.
Facebook shares were changing hands at $81.03 on Friday. The consensus price target is $95.47. The 52-week trading range is $60.15 to $86.07.
Shares of Gilead were at $112.36, below the consensus price target of $121.22. The stock has a 52-week range of $78.50 to $116.83.
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