Why Trump Could Be in Trouble in 2020

For the first time since President Trump was elected, more voters say that the national economy is getting worse than getting better, according to a recent study from Quinnipiac. This is a huge sticking point for Trump, who has leaned heavily on the success of the economy as a measure for his presidency.

Roughly 37% of those surveyed are saying the economy is getting worse, while 31% are saying it is getting better, and 30% saying it is staying the same. This compares to a June 11, 2019 poll in which 23% of voters said that the national economy is getting worse, 39% said it is getting better, and 37% said it is staying the same.

When asked to rate the state of the nation’s economy, 61% of voters said that it is excellent or good, while 37% said that it is not so good or poor. These numbers, while still clearly positive on the economy, are the lowest excellent/good economy numbers found by the Quinnipiac University Poll since April 2018.

Overall, 41% voters have said that President Trump’s policies are hurting the nation’s economy, while 37% say that they are helping. And 20% say that his policies make no difference.

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Another interesting component of the study showed that if the 2020 presidential election were held today, 54% of registered voters say that they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while only 38% would vote for President Trump. Matchups against other top Democrats show:

• Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53% – 39%.
• Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52% – 40%;
• California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51% – 40%;
• South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49% to Trump’s 40%.

Mary Snow, Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst, commented:

In hypothetical matchups between President Trump and the top five Democratic presidential candidates, one key number is 40. It’s the ceiling of support for Trump, no matter the candidate. It hovers close to his job approval rating, which has stayed in a tight range since being elected.

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