Investing

Earnings Previews: Blink, Canoo, Lucid, Luminar, Velodyne Lidar

Paul Ausick

Published: February 25, 2022 11:55 am

Electric vehicles (EVs) had a big year in 2021. Beginning with a SPAC merger that created Lordstown Motors in late October of 2020, stock prices jumped in the first couple of months of 2021, sank again and stayed lower for six months, popped back on Rivian’s IPO in November, and have slipped lower pretty much ever since.

Companies that supply services to and components for EVs also got into the game by the middle of 2020, again thanks to SPAC mergers. Three of those companies are included in this set of earnings previews.

Here are previews of two EV makers and three EV-related companies set to report results before markets open on Monday.

Blink

Shares of EV charging station maker and distributor Blink Charging Co. (NASDAQ: BLNK) surged in late January of 2021 to a 12-month gain of more than 500%. Since then, the stock has tumbled by about 63%. The recent run-up in crude oil prices has not had a positive impact on Blink’s stock price. Shares hit a recent peak in mid-November and have dropped by 52% since then. A further threat to charging vendors like Blink is shaping up from startups that swap out batteries so drivers do not have to charge them.

Analysts remain mildly bullish on the stock. Only seven brokerages cover the company, and three rate the shares at Hold while four more have either a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a recent price of around $23.50 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $39 is 66%. At the high target of $50, the potential upside is 113%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $6.2 million, which would be down 3.1% sequentially but up by 153% year over year. On a GAAP basis, the estimated loss per share is $0.39 for the quarter, worse than the loss of $0.36 per share in the prior quarter and the year-ago loss of $0.24 per share. For the 2021 fiscal year, analysts expect Blink to post a loss per share of $1.25, compared to last year’s loss of $0.59 per share, on revenue of $19.18 million, up 208%.

Blink is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple is expected to be 42.4 in 2021, 26.5 in 2023 and 14.1 in 2024. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $17.93 to $49.00. Blink does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 38.2%.

Canoo

Over the past 12 months, shares of EV maker Canoo Inc. (NASDAQ: GOEV) have dropped by about 61%. Since its IPO in late December 2020, shares are down about 56%. The company just began work on a new R&D and software center in Tulsa, Oklahoma, about 15 miles southwest of the assembly plant the company is building in Pryor, Oklahoma. Canoo also has lost some top technical and marketing talent in the past few weeks. Its CEO and other top executives left early in 2021.
Just four brokerages cover the stock, and three give the stock a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a share price of around $5.55, the upside potential based on a median price target of $14.50 is about 161%. At the high price target of $64, the upside potential is 278%

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.56 billion, up 29.0% sequentially but down 62.4% year over year. Analysts have forecast a loss per share of $0.01, following a per-share profit of $0.34 in the prior quarter and down from EPS of $0.02 in the same quarter last year. For fiscal 2021, current projections call for a loss per share of $0.02, compared to a loss per share of $0.10 last year, on sales of $4.20 billion, up about 190%.

The estimated enterprise value to sales multiple for 2022 is 6.9, and for 2023 is 1.3. The stock’s 52-week range is $4.90 to $16.68, and Canoo does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 59.3%.

Lucid

The other EV maker reporting quarterly results Monday morning is Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID). The company began trading publicly in late July of last year and instantly became the fourth most valuable EV maker in the world. Since the SPAC IPO, Lucid stock has traded down about 5.8%. Over the past 12 months, shares have dropped about 12%. The company began delivering cars in November but recently had to recall more than 200 to fix a safety issue with the vehicle’s suspension.

Only five analysts cover the stock, with two giving it a Buy rating and two more rating the shares at Hold. At a share price of around $25.30, the upside potential based on a median price target of $38 is 50%. Based on the high target of $60, the upside potential is 137%.

Analysts expect the company to report fiscal 2022 first-quarter revenue of $348 million and an adjusted loss of $0.25 per share. For the full fiscal year, the loss per share is forecast at $1.02 on sales of $2.01 billion. In fiscal 2021, Lucid reported sales of $61.53 million and loss per share of $1.42.

Lucid is not expected to report a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The company’s enterprise value-to-sales ratio for 2022 is estimated at 18.44 and for 2023 at 8.1. The stock’s 52-week range is $13.12 to $57.75. Lucid does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 9.77%.

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Luminar

Lidar maker Luminar Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: LAZR) began trading as a public company in December 2020 following a SPAC merger. At its peak less than a week later, the share price was up more than 325%. Over the past 12 months, however, the stock has lost 53% and since the peak is down 67%. Luminar makes lidar (light detection and ranging, or laser-light) systems for self-driving cars and trucks.
Analysts from 11 brokerages cover Luminar, with seven giving the stock a Buy rating and the other four putting a Hold rating on the shares. At a share price of around $13.80, the stock’s potential upside based on a median price target of $24 is 74%. At the high target of $38, the upside potential is 175%.

The company is expected to report sales of $11.74 million for the fourth quarter, up 47% sequentially and nearly five times higher year over year. An expected loss per share of $0.11 is a penny worse than the prior quarter loss and a penny better than the loss per share in 2020. For the full year, analysts are forecasting a loss per share of $0.40, worse than last year’s loss per share of $0.30, on sales of $31.26 million, up 124% year over year.

Luminar is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock trades at an estimated 2021 enterprise value to sales multiple of 143.0, a multiple of 168.8 for 2022 and a multiple of 35.7 for 2023. The 52-week range is $11.52 to $31.39. The company does not pay a dividend and total shareholder return for the past year is negative 51.2%.

Velodyne Lidar

Velodyne Lidar Inc. (NASDAQ: VLDR) makes lidar sensors for autonomous vehicles and drones and came public in October 2020 in a SPAC merger. Over the past year, the stock has dropped about 78% of its value. Earlier this month, the share price got a positive jolt following the announcement of a deal with Amazon granting the e-commerce giant a warrant to purchase 39.6 million shares of company stock at $4.18 per share at any time between now and February 4, 2030.

Of eight brokers covering the stock, five have a Hold rating and two more rate the shares at Buy or Strong Buy. At a share trading price of about $3.70, the implied gain to the consensus price target of $4.75 is 28%. At the high target of $25, the upside potential is 575%.

Analysts expect Velodyne to report a loss per share of $0.17 for the fourth quarter, with revenue totaling $16.55 million. In the year-ago quarter, Velodyne reported sales of $17.85 million and an adjusted loss per share of $0.12. For the full 2021 fiscal year, the loss per share is forecast to total $0.69, compared to a loss per share in 2020 of $0.44. Full-year revenue is forecast to total $61 million, down 36% year over year.

Velodyne is not expected to post a profit in any of 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock’s enterprise value to sales multiple is 7.3 for 2021, an estimated 4.3 for 2022 and an estimated 2.6 for 2023. The stock’s 52-week range is $3.13 to $17.20. The company does not pay a dividend and total shareholder return last year was negative 75%.