What Would Kamala Do for Ukraine?

Key Points:

• A Harris victory would likely continue Biden’s Ukraine policies.
• Harris and Zelensky’s relationship is developing, with potential for growth.
• Both vice presidential candidates bring military experience to the election.
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Austin Smith and Michael Muir discuss the potential implications of a Harris victory for Ukraine, noting that it’s still early in her candidacy to make definitive predictions. As part of the Biden administration, Harris has met with Ukrainian President Zelensky multiple times, though their relationship is not particularly strong yet. Michael suggests that Harris is likely to continue Biden’s policies in Ukraine, with a focus on maintaining material support. However, achieving a favorable outcome for Ukraine remains challenging. The conversation also touches on the military experience of both vice presidential candidates, J.D. Vance and Tim Walz, and how that might influence their perspectives on the conflict.

Transcript:

Do we have any context yet on what a Harris victory would mean for Ukraine or is it still too early in her candidacy?

Do we have any sort of line or expectation or would it be a continuation?

Do we expect it to be a continuation of Biden’s policies?

Do we even know yet?

Well, it’s difficult to say, but I mean, as being part of the Biden administration, she has met Zelensky a number of times.

From the reports that I’ve read, they don’t have a particularly warm relationship yet, but there’s room to grow there.

The most likely outcome here is sort of a continuation.

I think Harris is positioning herself as just kind of staying the course in Ukraine.

I think we can expect a push again to get some material support.

But in terms of outcomes, it really depends.

There’s going to be some major battles to get any deals done.

And even if they do, Ukraine is still very much up against it.

So it’s still an uphill task.

But with the Harris administration, there is more of a chance than with the Trump administration that whatever final peace settlement we get, whenever we get it, may be more favorable to Ukraine.

But again, it’s difficult.

Yeah, and we certainly can’t see into either candidate’s minds.

They might be feeling out the electorate before they make declarative statements.

But both vice presidential candidates, J.D. Vance and Walz, have military experience.

Walz has significantly more in the National Guard.

But that is an interesting element here, that you do have two vice presidential candidates that have experience in military, maybe not necessarily theaters of conflict.

But with the armed forces, broadly speaking.

So that does add maybe an interesting perspective.

I’m not sure if that means sympathy or not, but it’s an interesting element that we have that we could maybe watch play out over the next few months here.

Yeah, I think we can think about what each vice presidential pick brings to the ticket.

I think with Vance, it’s about shoring up the base, showing up support.

I think Trump was banking on Biden staying in the race and a low turnout election.

For Harris, I think Walz is just a solid pick.

He’s got bipartisan experience.

He’s, you know, when he was in the House, he was one of the most bipartisan members.

He does have that military experience that we should mention.

That’s the National Guard. He never deployed abroad.

J.D. Vance did.

But he does have an understanding, I think, of military matters, the experience.

And I think just that political appeal in the Midwest, an area sometimes the Democrats struggle in.