Key Points:
- Though support for Taiwan’s independence is divided, Trump is expected to concentrate on armaments sales and bolstering of Taiwan’s defenses.
- Avoiding confrontation with China will probably mean creating credible deterrents like submarines and drones to discourage aggressiveness.
- By means of bipartisanship on Taiwan policy, any legislative obstacles are lessened compared to Ukraine.
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Transcript:
[00:00:00] Austin: Now, when you when you reference the UK expression to let the metal do the work right in an absence of troops, I immediately think about Taiwan, right? A nation of a smaller population compared to China. So let’s turn our attention there. What would, how is Trump going to approach Taiwan? And is that a situation where we, where you can let the metal do the work, so to speak, because you can’t win on population or maybe
[00:00:23] Austin: let the drones do the work in this case.
[00:00:24] Austin: What does that look like? How is Trump going to interface with Taiwan and what is their strategy going to be?
[00:00:30] Michael Muir: Yeah, this one, is interesting because I think there’s less, difference between the two, the two presidential candidates in 24. you know, while there is some, there is a decent amount of Republican support for Ukraine, but I think the Ukraine skeptic wing of the party is one out there. unlike that, Taiwan is actually one of the few overwhelmingly bipartisan positions in Congress.
[00:00:56] Michael Muir: correctly, it’s Taiwan caucus is the largest, I have to double check that. But anyway, there is a lot of support on both sides of the aisle for maintaining Taiwan’s, you know, de facto independence from Beijing. So there’s not going to be a huge amount of. difference in terms of supporting Taiwan, but I do think there is more skepticism, from Trump in providing unilateral aid, but selling arms, I think will be a okay, and again, you know, we talked about the importance of the vice president in this race, so I paid a lot of attention to what JD Vance, had to say about Taiwan, and on the campaign trail and interviews, I think his position has been just maintaining a strong deterrent effect, you know, fighting a conflict against China as we, you know, I’ve discussed in some detail is a disaster as is a disaster for the United States, regardless of outcome.
[00:01:43] Michael Muir: So avoiding it in the 1st place is key to do. That is building up Taiwan’s defensive capabilities to ensure that China isn’t even tempted to to even do. So, you know, again, the expectation intelligence community has been, and again, this is just from publicly available information that Beijing is posturing to be ready sort of in the next 3 or 4 years.
[00:02:03] Michael Muir: Thank you very much. And then that demographic crisis that we’ve talked about, you know, they, they really only have until about 20, 32, 35 to carry it out if they’re going to do it. So the key for the U. S. is to just prevent that war happening in the first place, building up Taiwan’s defenses, maintaining a credible.
[00:02:21] Michael Muir: deterrence. so that is going to be selling modern weapons, building up their drone capability, building up their submarine capability, which they have been making some moves towards. Is it enough? That remains to be seen. Yeah, and I think this is actually one position, one foreign policy position where dealing with Democrats is not going to be particularly difficult. I think if they want to provide aid to Taiwan, I think there’s plenty of room to make a, a deal. Whereas with Ukraine, There’s really no need for bipartisanship, because if your approach is hands off, then you don’t need. To get the other side, board and although Trump currently has the trifecta, you know, we have to point out that, the majority in the Senate, I think it’s three is narrow.
[00:03:05] Michael Muir: You know, that’s not filibuster proof. And equally the house majority is razor thin. So some bipartisanship might be necessary there. but there’s a lot of, members of Congress who are very strong supporters of Taiwan. So I don’t think that would be a major barrier.
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