Costco (COST) Earnings: Stock Split Buzz Builds as Shares Test Record Highs

• Costco’s Q3 2025 Sales Surge 8% Amid Strong E-commerce Growth
• Costco Reports $1.90 Billion in Q3 2025 Net Income, Beating Last Year’s Results
• Costco’s Global Expansion Continues with 905 Warehouses Worldwide
• Costco’s Cash Reserves Climb to $13.84 Billion in Q3 2025

With earnings being released when the market closes, Costco is down .30% on the day. Consensus EPS estimate is $4.24.

1. Stock Split Optionality

   • Investors will be parsing any language about the possibility of a stock split. CFO Gary Millerchip recently said the company “continues to evaluate” a split, but emphasized there was “no plan at this time.” Even a slight change in tone could fuel upside momentum.

2. Membership Fee Trends

   • With membership income reaching $1.112 billion last quarter, investors will look for continued renewal strength and geographic expansion, especially with new stores slated to open later this year.

3. Operating Margin Stability

   • Last quarter’s 11.13% gross margin and 3.64% operating margin were both slightly up YoY. Stability or improvement here would reaffirm Costco’s pricing power and cost controls, despite inflationary pressures in certain categories.

4. Special Dividend? 

Costco stock has continued its strong performance into earnings, currently trading around $1,008, up approximately 10% year-to-date. Shares recently pushed above the $1,000 mark, a level that has reignited talk of a potential stock split among investors. Technically, the stock remains in a strong uptrend and near all-time highs.

From a valuation standpoint, Costco trades at over 50x trailing earnings, with a forward P/E around 42x, making it one of the more expensive large-cap retailers. Bulls justify this multiple by pointing to consistently high renewal rates, low churn, and operational discipline. However, any margin pressure or weaker comp figures could prompt valuation re-rating.

From the most recent call, CFO Gary Millerchip made it clear that while stock splits have occurred in the past and continue to be evaluated, “there is no plan at this time.” That phrasing creates uncertainty heading into earnings, particularly as shares approach the $1,000 psychological threshold. A lack of acknowledgment could disappoint retail investors who are looking for accessibility or sentiment-driven upside.

Separately, management highlighted that new warehouse openings are backloaded for the year. This could impact traffic comps or revenue flow in Q3, depending on the geographic mix and maturity of existing locations. The commentary pointed to strength in renewal rates and membership fees, but any signal of timing mismatch or margin compression could weigh on sentiment.

Costco has consistently delivered earnings beats, and the Street expects stability again this quarter, with analysts placing their targets in the $3.55–$3.85 EPS range.

• Current Quarter (FQ3 2025)

  • EPS Estimate: $4.243.70

  • Revenue Estimate: $63B

• Previous Quarter (FQ2 2025)

  • EPS Actual: $3.92

  • EPS Surprise: +$0.22

  • Revenue: $58.44B

  • YoY Revenue Growth: +5.7%

• Full-Year Outlook (FY2025)

  • EPS Estimate: $15.81

  • Revenue Estimate: $245.63B