Tesla’s (TSLA) Next Quarter Could Be A Complete Monster

By Kelly Araja Published Aug 19, 8:16AM EDT

Key Points

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) may see a strong Q3 boost in U.S. unit sales as buyers rush to claim the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it expires at the end of September.
Investors must weigh whether this demand surge is a one-time pull-forward event that could depress Q4 sales, affecting full-year performance.
While Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative remains strong, its near-term stock movement may hinge on traditional auto metrics like unit sales and incentives.

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Tesla’s (TSLA) Next Quarter Could Be A Complete Monster — © 24/7 Wall St

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Transcript:

[00:00:04] Doug McIntyre: After some very rough numbers in terms of unit sales at Tesla. This quarter could be a pretty big quarter because the sort of tax credit in the United States of $7,500 goes away at the end of September.

[00:00:20] Doug McIntyre: Now what that means is, if you want to get that money, which is a very big percentage of the price of a lot of these cars, you gotta get to the dealership. You gotta get to the dealership and get yourself one of these. So Tesla could have a pretty good quarter in the United States this quarter.

[00:00:37] Doug McIntyre: Investors have to decide how they’re gonna play that. Are they gonna play it that it’s a good quarter or are they gonna play it? That sales have been pulled forward if sales been pulled forward from the fourth quarter because people want this deal.

[00:00:52] Lee Jackson: I think that’s a good question and, that happened with the tariffs, when they were before the so-called liberation day and all that in April, remember all the big first quarter or quarters that companies were getting because people were buying, trying to front run that. So the question is, really, is will there be a big enough pop to make a difference on the yearly numbers and what happens in the fourth quarter?

[00:01:19] Doug McIntyre: Yeah. So. I think anybody who’s interested in Tesla stock, and I’m now talking about unit sales, I know a lot of people are interested in it because you know of their autonomous vehicles, they think it’s basically an AI company, which I’m not. I’m not quarreling with that. No, but I’m saying if you look at unit sales and say they’re at least somewhat important, you’ve gotta ask yourself whether, what happens this quarter in US sales is a ghost.

[00:01:48] Doug McIntyre: Or is it something where it carries over into the fourth quarter because the demand is greater, that it doesn’t get wiped out by the fact that the $7,500 tax credit goes away because your point is a very good one. Does it give the third quarter a bump or does it continue and give the year a bump? And that’s a question people, you gotta ask yourself that question if you’re buying Tesla shares because it’s a car company.

[00:02:15] Lee Jackson: Yeah, I think you’re right. And, again, 7,500 i, I guess to people buying high-end, Teslas or the trucks or anything like that, I, guess that is chump change to them, but to, to a lot of people that wanna get a Tesla and they can spend, they probably have budgeted x amount because a decent car, SUV now is 35 to 55, so it’s in that ballpark somewhere. but yeah, I, mean, they’re still gonna want that 7,500, but the question is, are they gonna wanna pay that at the end of the year or give that up in the fourth quarter?

[00:02:50] Doug McIntyre: Yeah. And I, there’ll be a rush for purchases.

[00:02:53] Lee Jackson: I think you’re right. I think you’re right.

[00:02:55] Lee Jackson: And so for, certainly, for those that like to trade Tesla stock, it may be good to long it on that premise and then, either switch your trade? Or just go in a total pairs trade where you’re long and shorted,

[00:03:13] Lee Jackson: Yeah. That’s not a bad idea.