Live: HP Inc. (HPQ) Reports Earnings Today – Will Shares Decline?
Key Points
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Consensus calls for Q3 revenue of ~$13.7B (+1% YoY) and EPS of $0.75 (–10% YoY).
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Tariff-related cost pressures remain the swing factor for margins, with mitigation efforts in flight.
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Stock has sold off after each of the last three earnings, averaging –8% 1-day moves.
Live Updates
Final Reaction
Not a blowout, but a credible stabilization quarter that supports HP’s pivot toward AI PCs and strengthens investor confidence into FY26.
HP is showing it can weather tariff shocks and ride the AI PC cycle to steady growth and FCF generation.
- Bullish: AI PCs delivering ASP uplift, Q4 EPS outlook raised, cash flow execution.
- Bearish: Printing remains a structural drag, margins still compressed vs. last year.
- Neutral: EPS flat YoY on a non-GAAP basis; growth modest relative to broader tech peers.
What Changed This Quarter
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PC strength returned: Fifth straight quarter of revenue growth, driven by AI PC mix and Win11 refresh.
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Tariff headwinds easing: Supply chain shifts nearly complete; CFO sees full mitigation by Q4.
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Printing still lagging: Supplies and hardware units remain in decline, partially offset by high margins.
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Cash flow improved: FCF rose double digits, giving HP flexibility to fund buybacks and dividends.
Key Operating Highlights
| KPI | Q3 FY25 | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Systems Revenue | $9.9B | +6% | Consumer +8%, Commercial +5% |
| Printing Revenue | $4.0B | –4% | Supplies –4%, Commercial –3% |
| PS Units | +5% | Up | AI PCs ~25% of mix |
| Printing Margin | 17.3% | Flat | High end of target range |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B | +13% | Strong working capital execution |
Guidance Update
Stock now up 2.88% after-hours.
| Metric | Guidance | Consensus | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 GAAP EPS | $0.75–$0.85 | $0.77 | 📈 Raised range |
| Q4 FY25 Non-GAAP EPS | $0.87–$0.97 | $0.88 | 📈 Raised |
| FY25 Free Cash Flow | $2.6B–$3.0B | ~$2.7B est. | 📈 Raised |
More on the top line numbers
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.9B (+3% YoY) | $13.71B | ✅ Beat |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.75 (–11% YoY) | $0.75 | ⚖️ Inline |
| EPS (GAAP) | $0.80 (+23% YoY) | $0.70 est. | ✅ Beat |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B (+13% YoY) | N/A | — |
A solid top-line beat and strong cash generation outweighed soft EPS optics. With AI PCs now ~25% of mix and tariff mitigation progressing, the +4.8% move reflects relief that HP is regaining stability after several difficult quarters.
Management Commentary
CEO Enrique Lores: “In Q3 we delivered a fifth consecutive quarter of revenue growth, driven by strength in Personal Systems and strong momentum in our key growth areas.”
CFO Karen Parkhill: “We remain confident in the strength of the PC market opportunity, and expect continued momentum from Windows 11 refresh and AI PC adoption.”
Management framed the quarter as proof of execution discipline — AI PC adoption is now fueling ASP uplift, while tariff-related costs are being successfully offset ahead of Q4.
HP Numbers Are In, Stock up 4.7%
Revenue was $13.90 billion, above the $13.71 billion consensus estimate. EPS was $0.75, in line with the $0.75 consensus estimate.
HP Inc. reported a 3.1% increase in revenue year-over-year, driven by growth in Personal Systems and key growth areas. The company achieved a GAAP diluted EPS of $0.80, up from $0.65 in the prior-year period. Free cash flow was $1.5 billion, and the company returned $0.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
HP remains optimistic about the PC market, expecting continued momentum from Windows 11 refresh and AI PC adoption. The company anticipates GAAP EPS for Q4 2025 to be between $0.75 and $0.85, and non-GAAP EPS to range from $0.87 to $0.97.
| EPS |
0.75 Beat
|
Est. EPS |
0.75 |
| Revenue |
$13.90B Beat
|
Est. Revenue |
$13.71B |
How HP Stock Performed After Recent Earnings
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | –11.3% | –8.26% | –7.40% | –8.81% |
| Q1 2025 | 0.0% | –6.82% | –9.50% | –12.46% |
| Q4 2024 | 0.0% | –11.36% | –7.40% | –11.83% |
| Q3 2024 | –3.9% | +2.00% | –1.67% | –0.12% |
HP Inc. (NYSE: HPQ | HPQ Price Prediction) eports fiscal Q3 2025 earnings after the close. The PC and printer maker has been caught in the crosscurrents of AI PC demand tailwinds and tariff-driven cost headwinds. In Q2, HP delivered revenue of $13.22 billion (+3% YoY) but EPS of just $0.71, missing estimates by 11% due to tariffs. With shares down sharply after recent earnings calls, investors will be watching closely to see if cost mitigations and the AI PC cycle can turn the tide.
What to Expect When HP Reports Tonight
Wall Street consensus for fiscal Q3 2025:
- Revenue: $13.71 billion
- EPS (Normalized): $0.75
- FY 2025 Revenue: $54.73 billion
- FY 2025 EPS: $3.12
- FY 2026 Revenue: $55.54 billion
- FY 2026 EPS: $3.37
That implies +1.4% YoY sales growth this quarter, but EPS falling nearly –10% YoY.
Key Areas to Watch
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Tariff Mitigation & Supply Chain Shift- HP accelerated moving nearly all North America product manufacturing outside of China by June 2025. CEO Enrique Lores said cost impacts will be fully mitigated by Q4.
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AI PCs as Growth Engine- AI PCs now ~25% of HP’s PC mix, expected to hit 50% within three years. Management emphasized ASP uplift of 10–20% and strong ISV support.
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Future Ready Cost Program- Targeting $2B in gross annual savings by FY2025 through supply chain redesign, automation, and IT simplification. CFO Parkhill said Q3/Q4 margins should benefit as these savings ramp.
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Commercial PC & Windows 11 Refresh- Commercial unit growth +11% in Q2; Win11 and AI refresh cycles remain key to H2 demand, despite management moderating PC growth expectations to low single digits.
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Print Margins & Industrial Growth- Print revenue down –3% YoY, but margins at the high end of 16–19% range. New industrial graphics portfolio launched at drupa has seen strong adoption.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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