Live: Will Texas Instruments Beat Q3 Earnings
Key Points
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Wall Street expects Q3 EPS of $1.49 and revenue near $4.64 billion, up roughly 12% year-over-year.
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Texas Instruments enters earnings after a solid Q2 beat and improving industrial demand.
Live Updates
Conference Call Kicks off soon
Texas Instruments conference call is next, starting at 4:30 pm ET. The stock is down 6.63% heading into the call.
What Changed This Quarter
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Topline re-accelerated: 14% YoY with growth across all end markets (broader than Q2).
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EPS included a new $0.10 reduction not contemplated in original guidance (dragging the headline).
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Q4 outlook reset below Street on both revenue and EPS; sets a more conservative near-term bar.
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Cash dynamics improved: TTM FCF 65% and cash returned $6.6B despite heavy TTM CapEx $4.8B.
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Segment breadth: Analog 16%, Embedded 9%, Other 11% — confirms recovery breadth.
Key Operating Highlights
| KPI (Q3) | Actual | YoY | Quick Thesis Check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analog revenue | $3.73B | +16% | Core TI engine re-accelerating; supports multi-year share/300mm thesis. |
| Embedded Processing revenue | $709M | +9% | Early-cycle lift; auto/industrial recovery still staggered. |
| Operating margin | ~35% | +~120 bps vs. rev* | Solid incrementals despite cost headwinds. (*Derived from $1.663B / $4.742B.) |
| TTM Free Cash Flow | $2.42B (+65%) | — | FCF inflecting as fabs scale; supports dividends/buybacks through cycle. |
| Cash returned (TTM) | $6.56B (Div $4.95B, Buybacks $1.61B) | +26% | Capital return remains a priority alongside $4.8B TTM CapEx. |
TI’s cycle playbook is intact (Analog 300mm cost advantage plus disciplined returns). Near-term, lower Q4 guide and EPS headwinds cap multiple expansion, but broad-based demand FCF rebuild support the long game.
Guidance Update (Q4 FY2025)
| Guide Item | Company Guide | Street Pre | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.22B – $4.58B | ~$4.64B | 📉 Lowered |
| EPS (GAAP) | $1.13 – $1.39 | ~$1.49 | 📉 Lowered |
The range brackets a softer top-line and embeds cost/one-offs ($0.10 EPS reduction) that weren’t in prior guidance — resetting near-term margin/earnings power.
Management Commentary
Revenue increased 7% sequentially and 14% from the same quarter a year ago with growth across all end markets. … TI’s fourth quarter outlook is for revenue $4.22B–$4.58B and EPS $1.13–$1.39. — Haviv Ilan, CEO
Confirms cyclical recovery breadth in Q3, but the Q4 outlook signals a measured pace into 2026 as customers manage inventories and as depreciation/tariffs and the $0.10 item weigh on EPS.
Earnings Are In
The release is out and the stock is down 3.5% right after the market closed.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (Pre-Earnings) | YoY | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.74 B | $4.64 B | +14 % | ✅ Beat |
| EPS (GAAP) | $1.48 | $1.49 | +1 % | ❌ Miss (by $0.01) |
| Q4 Guidance (EPS) | $1.13 – $1.39 | Street ≈ $1.49 | 📉 Lowered | |
| Q4 Guidance (Revenue) | $4.22 – $4.58 B | Street ≈ $4.64 B | 📉 Lowered |
Earnings out soon
We expect Texas Instruments earnings to drop almost immediately after the closing bell. So we’re just about 5 minutes away from seeing how investors react to Q3 earnings.
As a reminder, this blog will continue updating the moment earnings hit.
How TXN Stock Performed After Recent Earnings
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | +2.92% | –8.00% | –4.75% | –2.60% |
| Q1 2025 | +20.21% | +5.00% | +6.50% | +8.10% |
| Q4 2024 | +8.29% | +2.30% | +3.60% | +4.90% |
| Q3 2024 | +7.08% | +2.70% | +4.30% | +5.20% |
On average, the stock gained 2.9% after earnings over the past 4 quarters.
Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN | TXN Price Prediction) will report third-quarter earnings after the close today. The analog chipmaker has been a bellwether for broader semiconductor health, particularly in industrial and automotive markets that drive nearly 80% of its sales.
Last quarter, Texas Instruments delivered EPS of $1.41 versus $1.33 expected on revenue of $4.45 billion, a 16% year-over-year gain. Shares slipped in the immediate aftermath as investors questioned whether the recovery was already priced in, but management’s tone was confident that the cyclical upturn remains intact.
What to Expect When Texas Instruments Reports
Here’s Wall Street’s consensus for Q3 2025 estimates:
- Revenue: $4.64 billion
- EPS (Normalized): $1.49
- FY 2025 Revenue: $17.64 billion
- FY 2025 EPS: $5.57
- FY 2026 Revenue: $19.51 billion
- FY 2026 EPS: $6.64
Key Areas to Watch When Texas Instruments Reports Tonight
Drawing on management commentary from the Q2 2025 call, here are the central themes likely to drive investor reaction:
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Industrial Strength and “Running Hot” Dynamics- CEO Haviv Ilan noted industrial demand rose nearly 20% year-over-year in Q2, calling it “running a little hot.” Watch for whether that growth normalizes or sustains into Q3 amid inventory rebuilding.
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Automotive Lag and Timing of Recovery- Automotive remains the one major end market yet to show clear recovery. Ilan expects it to follow industrial by roughly a year, implying potential lift in late 2025 or early 2026.
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Tariffs, China Pull-Ins, and Demand Clarity- Management cited “pull-in” orders from China tied to tariff uncertainty. Investors will focus on whether demand stabilizes now that trade tensions have paused or if Q2 strength was front-loaded.
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Gross Margin and Depreciation Trends- CFO Rafael Lizardi guided for flat sequential margins despite higher depreciation, suggesting 300mm fab utilization is nearing optimal levels. Margin trajectory will be key for FY2026 earnings power.
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CapEx Discipline and Free Cash Flow Strategy- TI reiterated $5 billion in 2025 CapEx, with plans to return all free cash flow to shareholders. Any shift in capital priorities or dividend strategy would be closely parsed.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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