After this morning’s CPI report coming in lower than expected, markets showed a brief glimmer of hope, but this was quickly snuffed out. BTC is following the exact same pattern as yesterday, testing a local high and quickly being sold off at $89.2k. As the year winds down, the order books become thinner and thinner, so the violent moves we see aren’t needing nearly as much volume to move prices. BTC is likely to be stuck in this pattern for the near-term future, and will have to wait until traders come back in the New Year to bring more price action. January can be a mixed bag for BTC, but has generally had positive returns over the history of the asset. On average, January has returned 11% for BTC, and has a win rate of 67%. We will see if history favors January 2026 after an abysmal 4th Quarter in 2025.
The end of the year option expiry on Deribit, 26DEC25, is seeing increased volume towards puts, with volatility continuing to get more expensive than calls. Open interest at the money and below in puts are outweighing calls, as traders have hedged themselves for a bearish outcome. Strikes from $75k to $65k are north of 10,000 contracts in open interest.
End of year BTC Futures contracts are trading in backwardation, meaning futures prices are below current spot market. January 2026 contracts are trading in slight contango at the moment, while end of Q1 2026 contracts are about 2% above spot. On Hyperliquid, BTC perpetual futures are around 9% annualized in funding at this time of writing. Not much positivity is being priced in for the start of 2026, so far.
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