NLR ETF Climbs 75% in One Year as Uranium Miners Ride $100 Per Pound Breakout

The VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF has surged 75% over the past year, climbing from around $84 in January 2025 to $146.60 today. With $3.6 billion in assets, this fund concentrates on uranium miners and nuclear utilities, betting that renewed interest in carbon-free baseload power will translate into sustained demand for nuclear fuel and infrastructure. The question now is whether this momentum can continue or if the rally has gotten ahead of fundamentals.

The fund’s top holdings: Cameco leads at 8.6%, followed by Constellation Energy at 6.6%, and uranium miners like Uranium Energy Corp and Denison Mines. About 45% of the portfolio sits in uranium mining and enrichment companies, with another 20% in nuclear utilities. The rest includes advanced reactor developers like Oklo and NuScale Power, which have posted spectacular gains but remain pre-revenue.

The Uranium Price Question

Everything in this ETF hinges on uranium prices. Spot uranium traded around $90 per pound in early 2025 and has climbed toward $100 recently, driven by supply constraints and growing reactor demand. Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer, has signaled production challenges, while Western utilities are scrambling to secure long-term contracts outside of Russian supply chains. If uranium prices continue rising, the miners in NLR’s portfolio should benefit through higher margins and production expansions.

But uranium is notoriously volatile. The last time prices spiked above $100 per pound was in 2022, only to fall back as reactor restarts lagged and inventories absorbed demand. Investors should monitor monthly uranium spot price reports from UxC and Numerco, which track contract activity and inventory levels. A sustained move above $100 could validate current valuations, while a retreat toward $80 would pressure the miners that dominate this fund.

Holdings Divergence Tells a Story

Not all NLR holdings are moving together. Uranium Energy Corp has surged 164% over the past year, while Constellation Energy, the second-largest holding, is down 6% over the same period. This divergence shows uranium miners are capturing speculative momentum, while nuclear utilities face different pressures like power purchase agreements and regulatory timelines. The fund’s 36% annual turnover suggests the manager is actively adjusting exposure, so checking quarterly holdings updates on VanEck’s site will reveal whether the fund is rotating toward miners or utilities as market conditions shift.

Consider URNM Instead

For pure uranium exposure, Sprott’s URNM offers a more concentrated bet with 90% in uranium miners and physical uranium, versus NLR’s broader nuclear energy approach. URNM’s 0.85% expense ratio is higher, but its laser focus may appeal to investors who want direct commodity exposure without the utility and reactor technology dilution.

The single biggest factor to watch is uranium spot price momentum above $100 per pound, while the key micro signal is whether NLR continues rotating toward miners or shifts back to utilities as reactor construction timelines clarify.