The Most (and Least) Vulnerable Countries if NATO Collapsed

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By Sam Stebbins Published

Quick Read

  • With $997B in 2024 defense spending, nearly doubled the $509B combined total of all 31 other NATO members, the U.S. is the backbone of the trans-Atlantic alliance.

  • But recent comments from President Trump have fueled growing skepticism over America’s continued commitment to NATO.

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The Most (and Least) Vulnerable Countries if NATO Collapsed

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Perhaps at no other time in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 75-plus year history has the alliance’s future faced greater uncertainty. President Donald Trump, a longtime NATO critic, has made the annexation of Greenland a key second-term objective, going so far as to suggest a willingness to engage in economic or military conflict to obtain the island. Not only are President Trump’s statements controversial, but they also pose a grave threat to the NATO alliance’s continued existence, as Greenland is a Danish territory — and Denmark, like the United States, is a founding NATO member. 

Under the terms laid out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, an armed attack against one member state is considered an attack against all. Any outbreak of conflict between two or more NATO members could present an existential crisis for the alliance. While Trump recently walked back his previous comments, ruling out military intervention and economic sanctions as a means of wresting Greenland from Danish control, many American lawmakers and European officials fear that lasting damage to the trans-Atlantic alliance has already been done. 

As a military power, the United States is the single indispensable NATO member. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the U.S. spent $997.3 billion on defense in 2024, nearly double the $508.8 billion in combined defense spending among all 31 other NATO member states that year. Amid the alliance’s ongoing turmoil over the future of Greenland, the Pentagon is scaling back American participation in multiple NATO advisory groups, special operations units, and intelligence organizations. While the drawdown is reportedly unrelated to Trump’s ambitions for Greenland, the timing is inevitably stoking further concerns about America’s continued commitment to the alliance.

Using data from SIPRI, 24/7 Wall St. identified the countries that would be most vulnerable if NATO collapsed. We ranked all 32 NATO member states on 2024 military spending per capita, from highest to lowest. All additional data related to military expenditures are also from SIPRI. For Türkiye, per capita military expenditures were calculated using the latest available population data from the World Bank. Supplemental data on the international ranking of each country’s military strength is based on an index score calculated by Global Firepower.

Among the 32 NATO member countries, per capita military spending ranges from nearly $2,900 to less than $200. The backbone of the NATO security umbrella, the United States has the largest per capita military budget by a wide margin. At the other end of the list is Iceland, which, while one of the 12 original NATO members, is a country without a military and relies on the U.S. and other NATO allies for defense.

Insufficient investment in the military has long been a point of contention between NATO members. Since 2014, NATO allies have been expected to spend at least 2% of their national GDP on defense — a threshold that only three NATO members, including the United States, met that year. Even as recently as 2024, 14 NATO members fell short of the 2% defense spending goal, according to SIPRI. More recently, at the 2025 NATO Summit, member states committed to spending at least 5% of GDP on defense and related infrastructure by the year 2035. Notably, the countries on this list have ramped up defense spending in recent years. As America’s commitment to the alliance grows less certain, the trend will likely continue in the foreseeable future. 

Why It Matters

Donald Trump
Sean Gallup / Getty Images News via Getty Images

President Donald Trump has long been an outspoken critic of NATO. But Trump’s recent comments about the annexation of the Danish territory of Greenland may have undermined the three-quarter-century-old alliance past the point of repair. Should NATO crumble in the coming years, many European countries that have relied on the U.S. military for their national defense for decades may be on their own.

32. United States of America (joined NATO in 1949)

Bumble Dee / Shutterstock.com
  • Military spending in 2024: $2,895 per capita ($997.3 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 3.42% of GDP; 9.1% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $14.9 billion ($189.0 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +412.2% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +22.4% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +8.9% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 1st of 145 countries

31. Norway (joined NATO in 1949)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
  • Military spending in 2024: $1,880 per capita ($10.4 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.09% of GDP; 4.5% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $50.0 million ($823.7 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +1148.7% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +81.5% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +18.6% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 38th of 145 countries

30. Denmark (joined NATO in 1949)

Public Domain / WIkimedia Commons
  • Military spending in 2024: $1,670 per capita ($10.0 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.42% of GDP; 5.1% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $52.0 million ($1.1 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +794.1% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +158.9% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +22.5% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 45th of 145 countries

29. Luxembourg (joined NATO in 1949)

  • Military spending in 2024: $1,303 per capita ($871.6 million total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 0.96% of GDP; 2.0% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $3.1 million ($37.3 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +2174.8% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +198.4% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +31.6% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 117th of 145 countries

28. Netherlands (joined NATO in 1949)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons

  • Military spending in 2024: $1,276 per capita ($23.2 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.92% of GDP; 4.3% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $237.1 million ($5.0 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +349.1% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +117.7% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +39.4% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 36th of 145 countries

27. Finland (joined NATO in 2023)

  • Military spending in 2024: $1,245 per capita ($7.0 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.30% of GDP; 4.1% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $7.0 billion ($6.9 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +0.0% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +75.2% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +17.9% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 48th of 145 countries

26. United Kingdom (joined NATO in 1949)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
  • Military spending in 2024: $1,186 per capita ($81.8 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.28% of GDP; 5.3% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $2.6 billion ($35.7 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +116.7% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +30.4% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +8.6% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 6th of 145 countries

25. Sweden (joined NATO in 2024)

  • Military spending in 2024: $1,138 per capita ($12.0 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.00% of GDP; 4.1% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $.. .. ($.. .. in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +.. (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +118.9% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +37.5% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 27th of 145 countries

24. Estonia (joined NATO in 2004)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
  • Military spending in 2024: $1,055 per capita ($1.4 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 3.37% of GDP; 7.5% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $204.5 million ($372.6 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +273.8% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +114.6% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +16.7% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 107th of 145 countries

23. Germany (joined NATO in 1955)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
  • Military spending in 2024: $1,044 per capita ($88.5 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.89% of GDP; 3.9% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $1.6 billion ($21.3 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +305.3% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +93.4% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +31.5% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 14th of 145 countries

22. Poland (joined NATO in 1999)

Sean Gallup / Getty Images
  • Military spending in 2024: $982 per capita ($38.0 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 4.15% of GDP; 8.5% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $3.1 billion ($6.7 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +412.1% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +184.9% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +44.3% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 21st of 145 countries

21. France (joined NATO in 1949)

  • Military spending in 2024: $973 per capita ($64.7 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.05% of GDP; 3.6% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $1.3 billion ($15.9 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +296.6% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +23.8% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +8.7% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 7th of 145 countries

20. Lithuania (joined NATO in 2004)

  • Military spending in 2024: $916 per capita ($2.6 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 3.12% of GDP; 7.9% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $303.8 million ($556.3 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +367.8% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +276.0% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +21.5% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 88th of 145 countries

19. Greece (joined NATO in 1952)

  • Military spending in 2024: $791 per capita ($8.0 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 3.13% of GDP; 6.6% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $105.0 million ($1.0 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +643.4% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +49.0% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +14.4% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 30th of 145 countries

18. Latvia (joined NATO in 2004)

Uldis Zile / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

  • Military spending in 2024: $758 per capita ($1.4 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 3.26% of GDP; 7.5% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $272.6 million ($507.0 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +177.1% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +260.2% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +13.7% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 99th of 145 countries

17. Canada (joined NATO in 1949)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
  • Military spending in 2024: $742 per capita ($29.3 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.31% of GDP; 3.1% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $426.3 million ($4.3 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +572.1% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +39.1% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +7.8% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 28th of 145 countries

16. Belgium (joined NATO in 1949)

  • Military spending in 2024: $730 per capita ($8.6 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.28% of GDP; 2.4% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $165.2 million ($2.4 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +245.1% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +64.9% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +12.2% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 61st of 145 countries

15. Italy (joined NATO in 1949)

naphtalina / iStock via Getty Images
  • Military spending in 2024: $639 per capita ($38.0 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.61% of GDP; 3.2% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $501.3 million ($7.4 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +405.9% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +46.8% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +2.8% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 10th of 145 countries

14. Czechia (joined NATO in 1999)

  • Military spending in 2024: $605 per capita ($6.5 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.92% of GDP; 4.3% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $1.2 billion ($4.1 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +62.3% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +123.5% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +29.0% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 53rd of 145 countries

13. Slovakia (joined NATO in 2004)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons

  • Military spending in 2024: $516 per capita ($2.8 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.01% of GDP; 4.3% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $823.3 million ($1.6 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +73.6% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +113.4% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +16.7% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 71st of 145 countries

12. Spain (joined NATO in 1982)

  • Military spending in 2024: $514 per capita ($24.6 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.43% of GDP; 3.2% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $4.8 billion ($18.2 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +31.8% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +38.5% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +3.3% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 17th of 145 countries

11. Hungary (joined NATO in 1999)

Jozsef Soos / iStock Editorial via Getty Images
  • Military spending in 2024: $489 per capita ($4.7 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.16% of GDP; 4.4% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $715.9 million ($1.8 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +169.4% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +232.1% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +8.7% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 55th of 145 countries

10. Romania (joined NATO in 2004)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
  • Military spending in 2024: $457 per capita ($8.7 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.30% of GDP; 5.9% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $2.0 billion ($2.8 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +183.1% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +162.6% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +54.9% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 51st of 145 countries

9. Slovenia (joined NATO in 2004)

U.S. Department of Defense / Public Domain / Flickr
  • Military spending in 2024: $449 per capita ($951.9 million total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.31% of GDP; 2.7% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $514.2 million ($680.6 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +36.9% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +95.3% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +4.3% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 96th of 145 countries

8. Portugal (joined NATO in 1949)

  • Military spending in 2024: $445 per capita ($4.6 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.53% of GDP; 3.6% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $39.8 million ($681.6 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +563.6% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +53.1% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +9.6% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 39th of 145 countries

7. Croatia (joined NATO in 2009)

Goran Jakus Photography / iStock Editorial via Getty Images
  • Military spending in 2024: $419 per capita ($1.6 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.79% of GDP; 3.8% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $981.8 million ($1.1 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +44.9% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +49.3% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +13.2% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 74th of 145 countries

6. Bulgaria (joined NATO in 2004)

  • Military spending in 2024: $344 per capita ($2.3 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.15% of GDP; 5.5% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $667.7 million ($1.2 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +87.1% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +165.6% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +17.1% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 62nd of 145 countries

5. Türkiye (joined NATO in 1952)

  • Military spending in 2024: $292 per capita ($25.0 billion total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.92% of GDP
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $294.0 million ($1.0 billion in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +2057.8% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +139.2% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +27.6% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 9th of 145 countries

4. Montenegro (joined NATO in 2007)

  • Military spending in 2024: $235 per capita ($150.0 million total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 1.83% of GDP; 4.2% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $85.1 million ($95.7 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +50.4% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +105.3% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +31.3% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 127th of 145 countries

3. North Macedonia (joined NATO in 2020)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
  • Military spending in 2024: $193 per capita ($353.7 million total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.10% of GDP; 5.5% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $205.6 million ($232.3 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +47.1% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +169.2% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +32.7% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 112th of 145 countries

2. Albania (joined NATO in 2009)

Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
  • Military spending in 2024: $191 per capita ($535.5 million total)
  • Relative military spending in 2024: 2.04% of GDP; 6.6% of gov’t spending
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: $185.9 million ($263.4 million in 2023 USD)
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: +82.8% (constant USD)
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: +162.5% (constant USD)
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: +34.7% (constant USD)
  • Estimated military power ranking: 78th of 145 countries

1. Iceland (joined NATO in 1949)

  • Military spending in 2024: $0
  • Relative military spending in 2024: N/A
  • Military spending during first full year in NATO: N/A
  • Change in military spending since first year in NATO: N/A
  • 10-yr. change in military spending: N/A
  • 1-yr. change in military spending: N/A
  • Estimated military power ranking: 135th of 145 countries
Photo of Sam Stebbins
About the Author Sam Stebbins →

Sam Stebbins is a writer at a673b.bigscoots-temp.com where his primary focus is on government policy, politics, companies, and broad social and economic trends. Sam has been writing in the money and news verticals for over 8 years and holds a bachelor's degree from Hobart College, which he earned in 2010. Sam resides in upstate New York and enjoys hiking, biking, canoeing, and skiing in the Adirondack Mountains and across the Northeast.

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