It seems like any stock sitting adjacent to OpenAI has been punished severely in the past couple of months. Undoubtedly, it did not take long for sentiment to shift in the weeks and months that followed the launch of Gemini 3.0. Though OpenAI’s “code red” response was decent, with GPT-5.2 launching surprisingly earlier than expected, it’s clear that the momentum remains on Google’s (the parent company is Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL | GOOGL Price Prediction) side. But just as quickly as sentiment shifted away from OpenAI, I do think it could easily shift back.
And while Gemini is gaining speed, ChatGPT remains the userbase leader. I don’t know if it’s GPT-5.3, GPT-6, or GPT-7 that will cause the tables to turn again, if it even will, but I do think there’s a pretty strong chance that OpenAI shares would be stomach-churningly volatile had a stock in the public markets.
OpenAI worries are weighing down some stocks on the market
Even with all the uncertainty surrounding OpenAI and worries about the financial picture (could the firm really run out of cash in the middle of 2027 if it can’t do more capital raises?), the current cap raise round could pin the firm at a valuation in the ballpark of $750 billion and $830 billion, up markedly in a few quarters.
Despite the financial question marks and sky-high spending to come, can the ChatGPT maker really still be worth such a colossal sum? Possibly. If OpenAI does have its IPO, it could be a historic one in size (could it be a $1 trillion debut?) and volatility.
It’s too easy to be bearish on OpenAI these days, especially as AI bubble fears stay front and center. Either way, 2026 will be a big year for OpenAI. It might even leapfrog over Google Gemini again, as it explores monetization opportunities (ads). If rival Anthropic can find a path to profitability, so, too, can OpenAI, especially if the GPT-6 launch goes as well as GPT-4. For those looking for value amid OpenAI uncertainty, the following OpenAI-adjacent names look worth buying up.
Oracle
Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) has been weighed down primarily because much of its RPOs (remaining performance obligations) depend on OpenAI’s ability to pay. If OpenAI were to run out of cash within two years, that would not go all too well for Oracle. While OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) is a powerful growth engine that could mint its founder, Larry Ellison, as the world’s richest man again, there’s also some risk here, given its revenue stream isn’t as diversified as investors would like.
Such OpenAI contracts are in the ballpark of two-thirds of RPOs. Unless Oracle can lower its dependence by a bit or confidence in OpenAI comes roaring back, it’s looking like Oracle stock might be a bit too choppy a ride for investors, especially while it’s down more than 46% from its peak.
I think there’s real value to be had in Oracle, and think its role as GPU landlord could pay off in a big way, as the revolution (rather than a bubble) marches on. If you believe in OpenAI and Sam Altman, perhaps Oracle stock is the best proxy play.
Microsoft
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) was supposed to be one of the big enterprise AI winners, so why is the stock slumping? Undoubtedly, it seems like a lot of the OpenAI hype has been wiped out. Given that OpenAI is crucial for its Copilot driver, I don’t think Microsoft is going to let OpenAI tread water if it were to run into financial issues later down the road.
Either way, all it takes is a big capital raise (perhaps $50 billion from the Middle East) to soothe much of the fears of investors. In the meantime, shares of Microsoft go for 32.0 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E), which is way too low for a company that could have the firepower to beat earnings as they come due later in the week.
Undoubtedly, it looks like Azure could be doing much of the heavy lifting again as the first big earnings season of the year kicks off.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks