Stock Market Live February 13, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) Fighting to Go Green
Quick Read
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January CPI rose 2.4% year over year versus 2.5% expected.
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Applied Materials surged 11% on guidance for semiconductor systems revenue to grow over 20% versus Street estimates of 11%.
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Odds of a June Fed rate cut reached 83% following the better-than-expected CPI data.
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Here’s why lithium stocks could rocket higher
The lithium story is getting explosive – again.
For one, lithium remains one of the most strategically important commodities for the global shift to electrification, clean energy, and energy storage.
Unfortunately, lithium is shifting from oversupply to a tight deficit again.
In fact, as noted by Seeking Alpha:
“Industry forecasts continue to point to lithium demand more than doubling by the end of the decade, with 2026 shaping up as a key inflection year where demand growth clearly outpaces new supply. Several higher-cost producers have slowed production or paused expansions, while permitting timelines and capital discipline are keeping new mines from coming online as quickly as once expected. As a result, analysts increasingly expect the lithium market to move from surplus toward deficit starting in 2026.”
At the same time, demand for lithium is rising, while supply is falling due to lower mine activity.
All of which is creating substantial opportunities for related lithium stocks and ETFs, such as Albemarle (ALB) and the Global X Lithium ETF (LIT).
Futures are fighting to go green this morning.
At the moment, the S&P 500 is down about 0.18%, or by 12 points. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY | SPY Price Prediction) is up fractionally. The Dow is down about 0.13%, or by 77 points. The Nasdaq is down 0.33%, or by about 80 points. All after the release of the consumer price index, which showed a slower annual rate of inflation than expected.
The consumer price index (CPI) for January was up 2.4% year over year.
If we exclude food and energy, core CPI was up 2.5%. Economists were looking for an annual rate of 2.5% for both readings. That better-than-expected CPI news also boosted the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In fact, the odds for a cut in June are about 83%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Market Movers: Applied Materials Up 11%
Shares of Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) are up by 11%, or by $36 a share.
All after the company posted solid earnings, and really impressed analysts with its guidance.
EPS of $2.38 beat by 17 cents. Revenue of $7.01 billion, down 2.2% year over year, beat by $130 million. Moving forward, the company expects revenue to be between $7.15 billion and $8.15 billion, which is above expectations for $7.01 billion. Adjusted EPS is expected to come in between $2.44 and $2.84 per share, also well above the $2.28 anticipated.
“Wells Fargo was impressed with the company’s guidance, especially given the rising expectations from its peers. “While not providing a C2026 [wafer fab equipment estimates], AMAT expects its semi systems rev to grow >20% y/y—well ahead of prior Street est at +11% y/y,” as noted by Seeking Alpha. The firm has an overweight rating with a $435 price target.
Bank of America said it is now the “time to shine” for Applied Materials. The firm has a buy rating with a price target of $420. JPMorgan reiterated its overweight rating on AMAT, noting that AMAT’s growth potential remains strong.
Analyst Upgrades: Goldman Sachs Reiterates Buy Rating on Microsoft
After gapping from about $480 to about $402, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been one of the top tech stocks to avoid. However, according to Goldman Sachs, weakness is an opportunity. The firm has a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $600 a share.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank just upgraded Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) to a buy rating, noting that the company is not “immune from AI disruption” but is still “more insulated than peers,” as noted by CNBC. The firm also upgraded shares of Merck (NYSE: MRK) to a buy rating, noting that the pharmaceutical stock is underappreciated.
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