The Analyst Who Called the 1987 Crash and Silver Hitting $100 now Sees It Tripling From Here

Analysts whose crystal balls scored spectacular gains or predicted major market upheavals are followed by investors and other market watchers with an almost guru-like focus. Ray Dalio and Cathie Wood are two analytical popular fund managers whose names are recognizable to many. Analysts who focus on research but don’t manage funds directly have a market if their research is deemed valuable. Momentum Structural Analysis founder Michael Oliver is one such analyst.

A Wall Street veteran since 1975, Oliver founded Momentum Structural Analysis in 1992 for institutional investor clients, finally opening subscriptions for individual investors in 2015. His proprietary method of calculating prices on commodities, equities, and other market trading sectors into a momentum oscillator gives him indications of market energy building and decaying long before other technical pricing methodologies begin to indicate trends. 

Oliver successfully predicted the 1987 crash and anticipated both silver’s astonishing 2025 bull run, as well as the subsequent pull back retracing of January 2026. However, his momentum indicators are forecasting another bull run that can reach between $300 and $500 per ounce in 2026, by possibly sometime this summer. He gave a number of reasons, many of which have already occurred, but not previously explained within the scope of his momentum analytical methodology:

The Silver/Gold Ratio Change

Michael Oliver’s silver price premise is based on historical changes in the silver-to-gold price ratio, of which current conditions echo those chnges and are showing signs of further breakout.

The change in the silver-to-gold ratio was Oliver’s first breakout signal. 

• 2024 saw silver prices at 1% of gold prices.
• By spring 2025, that ratio doubled to 2%.
• Historic silver/gold ratio peaks include rises to 6.5% in 1980 and to 3.1% in 2011.
• If gold continues, as many anticipate, to $8,000 oz., a 3%-6% ratio for silver would price it between $240 to $500. This is based on past gold bull runs, which went up 8-fold in both 1980 and in 2011. 

Shaking Out Weak Hands

• The recent pullback was intentional; it was designed to remove weak hand investors and offer liquidity to large institutional short positions before the next bull run. 
• Those investors who thought silver and gold prices were a “bubble” in January would likely miss the next bull run. 
• The insiders will get the bulk of the bull run while those who pulled out will likely jump back in once silver has run up perhaps halfway to the full target.
• If February’s consolidation doesn’t experience any disruptive events, March is Oliver’s target month for the bull run to commence. First to return to the recent highs of $120, and then it goes ballistic, since there would be a hefty amount of doubt created. 
• This doubt will keep the weaker investors on the sidelines for the first several months, and they will then join the party late to push the price up higher. 

Oliver also noted other broken momentum factors:  

• The inability of silver production to meet ever increasing demand 
• US dollar devaluation – over printing of M2 money supply also undermines theories about silver being “overbought” since dollar buying power has dwindled so much due to inflation. 
• A very weak 30-year US Treasury Bond, which could trigger a sovereign debt confidence crisis and a subsequent debt-market panic. 

In a separate but related event at the time of this writing, the Shanghai Futures Exchange officially announced that it was banning naked silver contract positions without approved hedging quotas. This move essentially forces paper traders out of the game, and forces traders to cover naked positions, specifically speculative naked shorts. Ironically, futures markets were designed to mitigate extreme volatility in commodities markets. This move could wind up being jet fuel to accelerate a short squeeze.