Strategas: Nvidia Should Trade to $212-$215, Not $180; Earnings Aren’t Peaking

Strategas has a message for investors who think Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) has already peaked: you’re looking at the wrong number.

In a recent appearance, Strategas analyst Ryan Grabinski made the bull case plainly:  Nvidia should be at like $212-$215, not $180. I just think there continues to be — are we at the peak for Nvidia earnings or Broadcom? And I think the answer is going to be no.”

With Nvidia currently trading around $182.48, that call implies roughly 17% upside to the midpoint of his target range. And when you look at the earnings trajectory, it’s hard to argue with the logic.

Five Quarters. Zero Signs of a Peak.

The numbers tell the story. Nvidia’s revenue has marched steadily higher every single quarter: $39.3 billion, then $44.1 billion, $46.7 billion, $57.0 billion, and most recently $68.1 billion. EPS has followed the same path, climbing from $0.89 to $1.62 over that same stretch. Every quarter has beaten estimates. The most recent quarter delivered a 7.28% EPS surprise against expectations. That’s not a company approaching a ceiling. That’s a company still accelerating.

Year-over-year earnings growth sits at 95.6%, and the analyst community has noticed. 95% of the 61 analysts covering Nvidia are bullish, with a consensus price target of $263.39. Strategas’ $212-$215 call is actually conservative relative to where Wall Street broadly sits.

The Mega-Cap Pecking Order

Grabinski also weighed in on how to think about the broader mega-cap landscape. His view: be choosy. “I think the Googles and the Apples to me feel safe… META is spending, Amazon spending… And the other ones I think you got to be careful on the spending side. I think the market will penalize them like they’re doing.”

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported Q4 2025 EPS of $2.82 against estimates of $2.71, with 31.1% year-over-year earnings growth. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) posted Q1 FY2026 EPS of $2.84 on $143.8 billion in revenue. Both carry more predictable spending profiles than peers deep in AI infrastructure buildouts.

Meanwhile, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the other name Grabinski flagged as having room to run on earnings. Broadcom’s results have accelerated sharply, with quarterly earnings growth of 188% year-over-year.

The Strategas thesis boils down to this: the AI infrastructure buildout isn’t slowing, the hyperscalers are still spending, and the companies supplying the picks and shovels, Nvidia and Broadcom chief among them, are nowhere near peak earnings. If that thesis proves correct, the gap between the current $182 price and Strategas’ $212-$215 target would represent significant room for appreciation according to the analyst’s model.