Live: Will Apple Soar After Q1 Earnings Tonight?

Apple’s conference call is winding down. Analysts have attempted to get more details on their arrangement with Google (without luck) and have pressed on margins.

At the end of the day, Apple is reporting surprisingly strong margins in Q2, yet shares are below where they traded shortly after Apple announced earnings.

To be frank, we’re fairly surprised. These were very good earnings that we’d expect to drive gains more around 2 to 3%. Instead, Apple is trading for slightly more than where it closed today.

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Apple delivered revenue guidance that topped expectations and said margins would exceed Wall Street targets, but shares aren’t budging. They’re currently up .5%.

Not surprisingly, the first question on the Q&A portion of the call is about memory. Here it is in full:

Amit Daryanani Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division

Yes, I have 2. Maybe to start with — there’s a lot of focus on the impact of memory to hosted companies and I’d love to kind of get your perspective when you folks are guiding gross margins up into the March quarter. Just talk about, a, your comfort in securing the bits that you need for shipment? And b, how do we think about memory inflation flowing through Apple’s model over time?

Timothy Cook Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Amit, it’s Tim. Let me back up a bit and talk about the constraints that Kevin referred to in his remarks and memory try to get both of these out at once. First of all, we were thrilled with the customer response on the latest iPhone lineup. It exceeded our expectations to say the least.

And iPhone grew 23%. And what the result of that was that we exited the December quarter with very lean channel inventory due to that staggering level of demand. And based on that, we’re in a supply chase mode to meet the very high levels of customer demand. We are currently constrained. And at this point, it’s difficult to predict when supply and demand will balance. The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on.

At this time, we’re seeing less flexibility in supply chain than normal, partly because of our increased demand that I just spoke about. From a memory point of view, to answer your question, memory had a minimal impact on the Q1, so the December quarter gross margin. We do expect it to be a bit more of an impact to the Q2 gross margin and that was comprehended in the outlook of 48% to 49% that Kevin gave earlier.

Beyond Q2, we don’t obviously provide outlooks beyond the current quarter. But we do continue to see market pricing for memory increasing significantly. As always, we’ll look at a range of options to deal with that. So hopefully, that gives you the full view.”

Apple just issued guidance of between 13% and 16% growth next quarter.

Wall Street expected 12.5% growth, so that’s a beat.

Wall Street was expecting gross margins of 47.6%, so their guidance of 48.5% at the midpoint is a beat.

This is good news that should benefit shares.

Here’s what Apples CFO just said on tonight’s conference call:

“Importantly, the color we’re providing assumes that global tariff rates, policies and their application remain in effect as of this call, and the global macroeconomic outlook does not worsen from today. We expect our March quarter total company revenue to grow by 13% to 16% year-over-year, which includes our best estimates of constrained iPhone supply during the quarter. We expect services revenue to grow at a year-over-year rate similar to what we reported in the December quarter. We expect gross margin to be between 48% and 49%. We expect operating expenses to be between $18.4 billion and $18.7 billion, which is at a similar level to what we reported in the December quarter and driven by higher R&D on a year-over-year basis. We expect OI&E to be around $100 million, excluding any potential impact from the mark-to-market of minority investments and our tax rate to be around 17.5%.”

We’re on Apple’s call and waiting for the promised margin discussion and guidance but it hasn’t arrived yet.

Shares are currently up just .4% as investors wait on this commentary.

I’d expect gross margin discussion to happen shortly…

Here’s what Tim Cook had to say about iPhone demand on tonight’s conference call:

“As I mentioned earlier, it was a fantastic quarter for iPhone with an all-time revenue record of $85.3 billion, up 23% year-over-year. This is the strongest iPhone lineup we’ve ever had and by far, the most popular. Throughout the quarter, customer enthusiasm for iPhone was simply extraordinary. Users were incredibly excited about everything enables them to do. iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max delivered the ultimate iPhone experience. They feature the best ever performance in battery life on an iPhone, the most advanced camera system and a striking design. iPhone Air, our slimmest and lightest smartphone yet, as powerful capabilities into an ultra slim and sleek design.

And iPhone 17 is a truly fantastic upgrade and an incredible value.”

We’ll continue updating this live blog throughout it.

As a reminder, what Apple says about gross margins about memory pricing on this call will determine if shares rise or fall tomorrow. Simply leave this page open and new updates should post automatically. 

Apple delivered blowout earnings, so why aren’t shares up 5%?

Likely the biggest reason (that we immediately identified in this live blog) is that the company is withholding margin guidance for its conference call.

That call starts in about 7 minutes.

Which is to say, leave this blog open if you want commentary and analysis on Apple’s conference call. It will likely shape where shares trade tomorrow. We will post updates with Apple’s specific commentary on memory prices from the call. 

One massive reason for Apple’s beat is China performance. The company’s ‘Greater China’ region grew 38%. That was a $7 billion improvement from last year.

The biggest reason for Apple’s beat was iPhone sales. But sales to China are the second biggest ‘bright spot’ from today’s earnings. We’re waiting on Apple’s conference call for clarity on future gross margins to see where shares will head next.

As of 4:47 p.m. ET, shares are up moderately, about .8%.

Overall Grade: A

Apple delivered one of its strongest quarters in years, crushing estimates across every major metric while demonstrating exceptional operational execution. The 15.7% revenue growth marks a significant acceleration from the 4% pace in Q1 2025, driven by record iPhone demand and robust Services momentum. Cash generation improved dramatically, enabling $32B in shareholder returns.

As we just noted, Apple is waiting for their conference call to address forward guidance on margins. That could shift narrative.

This is likely causing share gains to fade, as Apple’s after-hours gains have fallen from an immediate jump off nearly 3% down to 1.2% gains.

We expect shares will continue bouncing around as investors digest these earnings.

Wow, we’re blown away by the 23% growth in iPhone revenues. Clearly, Wall Street is happy too.

Other figures to note:

Revenue: $143.76 billion vs. expectations of $138.40 billion.

Apple CEO Tim Cook just told CNBC they’ll address surging memory prices on their conference call. 

One note – the company is waiting to give guidance on their margins for their call. So there could be a large shift in sentiment when those numbers are announced. 

The headline is a blowout quarter.

• EPS of $2.84 (versus expectations of $2.67)

iPhone revenues were up 23% (!!!).

Services revenue largely inline with Wall Street expectations.

Shares are jumping right now, up 2.6%

Stay here for more updates and analysis. 

Apple enters tonight’s earnings call trading at $258.42, down 4.9% year-to-date but up 4% over the past week. The stock sits roughly 10% below its 52-week high of $288.62, positioning it within striking distance of analyst consensus targets near $287.

Recent volatility shows investor caution: shares fell to $248 last week before recovering. Institutional activity signals confidence—Strategic Planning Group increased its stake 24% in Q3 2025, making Apple its largest holding.

Semiconductor suppliers are surging: Micron jumped 52% year-to-date and TSMC gained 11.5%. The question is whether their gains are a sign of demand that’s bullish for Apple or gives them pricing pressure that can prove very bearish. 

We are five minutes away from Apple’s earnings. Leave this page open and new updates will post automatically. The moment Apple’s earnings hit newswires we will begin posting news and analysis. 

One of the greatest pressures on Apple headed into earnings is the pricing on its supplies, especially in memory. SanDisk just reported and their earnigns were stunning. The company delivered $6.20 in EPS versus estimates of $3.44. Shares are up 15%.

That’s an ominous sign for Apple headed into tonight’s earnings.

As we wait for Apple to report earnings tonight, here are some areas we’d expect Wall Street to ask about on Apple’s conference call.

• iPhone Demand & China Recovery: How are current iPhone sales trending? What improvements are you seeing in Greater China after recent weakness?
• AI Strategy & Development: What’s the timeline for your AI product roadmap and Siri enhancements? How will this differentiate Apple’s AI from competitors?
• Memory Cost Pressures: How are elevated storage component costs impacting gross margins? Are you seeing relief in the supply chain for Q2?
• Services Growth Momentum: Can you provide details on Services segment performance and your outlook for continued growth?

Key Phrases to Listen For

Bullish signals: “China stabilization,” “AI monetization roadmap,” “margin expansion.” Red flags: “supply chain headwinds,” “promotional activity,” vague AI timelines.

Key metrics analysts are watching tonight: iPhone 17 demand trajectory, Services growth acceleration (targeting 15%+ annually), and China stabilization after recent weakness. Any mention of AI monetization timelines or the newly acquired Q.ai integration roadmap would likely draw analyst attention.

Prediction markets place 94% odds that Apple will beat EPS estimates of $2.67 tonight.

That’s on the higher end of probabilities this earnings season. Last night, prediction markets only gave Tesla a 40% chance of beating earnings.

However, Apple is slightly overshadowed by Visa, which is also reporting tonight. Prediction markets award them a 97% chance of beating earnings.