Serve Robotics (NASDAQ:SERV) stock is surging in Wednesday morning trading after the company reported its Q4 2025 financial results before market open on March 11. Shares are heading toward $11, up around 13% from Tuesday’s closing price.
The move comes as the company delivered a meaningful revenue beat and raised its 2026 outlook to levels that would represent roughly 10x year-over-year growth. With NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) lending its credibility to the platform and analysts seeing significant upside from here, this isn’t a random pop.
Revenue Beat Drives Pre-Market Surge
Serve Robotics posted Q4 2025 revenue of $882,000, beating the consensus estimate of $736,960. That represents 401.59% year-over-year revenue growth, a number that reflects a company in full-scale deployment mode rather than steady-state operations.
For the full year, FY2025 revenue came in at $2.651 million, ahead of the $2.506 million consensus estimate. The EPS loss of $0.34 for Q4 is wide, but that’s the cost of scaling a fleet from roughly 100 robots to 2,000 units across 20 U.S. cities in a single year.
CEO Ali Kashani declared in the earnings release, “What our team accomplished last year is extraordinary.” Kashani added that Serve Robotics “went from operating in a single city to running the largest autonomous sidewalk fleet in the country,” and achieved this “while delivering near-perfect reliability and surpassing our financial targets.”
The operational data supports the CEO’s high praise. Serve Robotics’ daily active robots grew from 57 in Q4 2024 to 547 in Q4 2025, and the company’s merchant partners expanded from roughly 400 to over 4,500.
NVIDIA’s Stamp of Approval and Analyst Conviction
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang spotlighted Serve Robotics at CES as a prime example of “physical AI,” a moment that sent SERV shares up over 13% on that day alone. That kind of endorsement from the company powering the AI infrastructure buildout is not something analysts take lightly. Serve’s robots run on NVIDIA Jetson Orin compute, giving the platform a direct hardware and credibility link to the dominant AI chip maker.
The analyst community is firmly in the bull camp. Eight analysts carry a Buy consensus on SERV, with an average one-year price target of $18.80. Firms with positive ratings include Oppenheimer, Cantor Fitzgerald, Northland Capital Markets, Freedom Capital Markets, and DA Davidson.
The 2026 Setup: Healthcare, Scale, and a 10x Revenue Target
Serve Robotics raised its 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $26 million, which would represent roughly 10x growth over FY2025. The primary driver isn’t just more sidewalk robots: the acquisition of Diligent Robotics, closed January 27 for $29 million in stock, brings the Moxi hospital assistant robot into the fold.
Moxi has already completed over 1.25 million hospital deliveries across more than 25 hospitals. This adds a recurring healthcare revenue stream that has nothing to do with food delivery.
Moreover, Serve Robotics’ platform partnerships are equally important. The company’s robots are integrated with Uber Technologies‘ (NYSE:UBER) Uber Eats and DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH), covering 80% of the U.S. food delivery market.
Additionally, the Gen3 robot offers a 65% unit cost reduction versus the prior generation, which is the kind of hardware economics that actually makes a sub-$1-per-delivery cost target credible at scale. For more context on the robotics sector’s momentum heading into today, see “Beyond Tesla and Nvidia: 2 Overlooked Robotics Stocks Just Blew Out Earnings”.
What to Watch
Serve Robotics is hosting its Q4 2025 earnings call today at 11:00 a.m. ET. Management’s commentary on the Diligent Robotics integration timeline, the pace of 2026 city expansions, and the path to that $26 million revenue target will shape whether today’s gains hold.
With a 52-week high of $18.64 still well above current levels, the ceiling is visible. While SERV stock could be prone to volatility in the coming trading sessions, there may be a share-price floor in place now — ultimately, it all depends on whether Serve Robotics can execute.
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