If you searched for a biotech or health sciences ETF and landed on Fidelity Disruptive Technology ETF (NYSEARCA:FDTX), there is something important to clarify upfront: this fund carries zero healthcare sector exposure. Its name references disruptive technology, and its portfolio reflects exactly that. Information Technology represents 58.5% of the fund, with Communication Services adding another 9.2%. Investors seeking biotech or health sciences exposure will need to look elsewhere. What FDTX actually offers is concentrated exposure to the companies building AI infrastructure.
The fund has had a rough start to 2026. FDTX is down roughly 12% year-to-date, trading near $35.78 after opening the year closer to $40.74. That pullback largely mirrors weakness in its top holdings. NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction is down about 10% year-to-date, and NASDAQ:PLTR has dropped nearly 20% over the same stretch. On a one-year basis, the fund is still up about 9%.
The Macro Signal That Will Define the Next 12 Months
The single biggest macro factor for FDTX is the pace of hyperscaler capital expenditure on AI infrastructure. The fund’s top holdings are almost entirely dependent on continued spending from Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta on data centers, GPUs, memory, and networking. When that spending accelerates, every layer of the stack benefits simultaneously.
The evidence of that spending is already embedded in the earnings of FDTX’s largest positions. NASDAQ:MU Micron’s Cloud Memory Business Unit generated $5.28 billion in revenue with 66% gross margins in its most recent quarter, and management noted order books stretching into 2027. NVIDIA reported data center revenue of $62.31 billion in Q4 FY2026, up 75% year-over-year. NYSE:COHR Coherent’s datacenter and communications segment now represents 72% of total revenue, growing 34% year-over-year.
Hyperscaler earnings calls, published quarterly by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, are the clearest leading indicator for FDTX’s near-term direction. Each company discloses capital expenditure guidance during these calls, and any meaningful reduction in that guidance would ripple directly through FDTX’s top holdings. The reverse is also true: upward revisions have historically triggered broad rallies across semiconductors, memory, and optical networking. Track these releases through each company’s investor relations page, with Microsoft and Alphabet typically reporting in late April for their March quarters.
The ETF-Specific Factor That Could Surprise Investors
FDTX launched in April 2020 and remains a relatively small fund with approximately $182 million in net assets. That size creates a concentration dynamic worth understanding. The top three holdings, NYSE:TSM Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron, and NVIDIA, together represent roughly 17.5% of the portfolioThe top three holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron, and NVIDIA, together represent roughly 17.5% of the portfolio. When any one of these names moves sharply, the fund moves with it.
Micron is the clearest near-term example. Micron fell more than 15% in a single week in late March despite reporting a 21% earnings beat and guiding for $18.70 billion in Q2 FY2026 revenue. That kind of disconnect between fundamentals and market price can drag FDTX meaningfully even when the underlying business is performing well. Monitoring Fidelity’s monthly holdings disclosures, available on the fund’s page at fidelity.com, will show if any reconstitution shifts weight away from or toward these high-concentration names.
Over the next 12 months, FDTX’s performance will hinge on whether hyperscaler AI spending holds its current trajectory. If it does, the fund’s semiconductor-heavy concentration is a feature. If spending slows, that same concentration amplifies the downside.
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