Had You Invested $1K in Waste Management or Republic Services 10 Years Ago, Here’s What You’d Have Now

Waste Management (NYSE: WM | WM Price Prediction) and Republic Services (NYSE: RSG) are not glamorous. They pick up trash. But over the past decade, both companies quietly compounded shareholder wealth by leaning into pricing power, long-term municipal contracts, and a growing sustainability angle through renewable natural gas and recycling automation. Waste Management expanded its footprint dramatically with its early 2025 acquisition of Stericycle, adding a healthcare waste segment generating over $600 million per quarter. Republic Services took a more focused path, investing $1.1 billion in acquisitions during 2025 while expanding its Environmental Solutions segment. Both companies benefited from the simple fact that waste never stops being produced, recession or not.

What a $1,000 Investment Became

The 10-year numbers demonstrate how differently the two companies are sized and structured.

WM: 10-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $4,686 (price return only)
• Total Return: 368.6%
• S&P 500 (same period): $3,167 (216.7%)

WM: 5-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $1,931
• Total Return: 93.1%
• S&P 500 (same period): $1,636 (63.6%)

WM: 1-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $1,003
• Total Return: 0.3%
• S&P 500 (same period): $1,168 (16.8%)

RSG: 10-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $5,377
• Total Return: 437.7%
• S&P 500 (same period): $3,167 (216.7%)

RSG: 5-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $2,352
• Total Return: 135.2%
• S&P 500 (same period): $1,636 (63.6%)

RSG: 1-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $915
• Total Return: −8.5%
• S&P 500 (same period): $1,168 (16.8%)

Both stocks outperformed the S&P 500 over 10 and five years. The past year tells a different story. Waste Management essentially went nowhere at 0.31%, and Republic Services declined 8.5%, while the index returned 16.8%. Stericycle integration costs and recycled commodity price headwinds weighed on Waste Management, while Republic Services faced labor disruption costs of $56 million in 2025 and volume softness. The long-term compounding story remains intact, but the near term has been a period of moderation.

Weighing the Rivals

Waste Management’s Stericycle integration progress and management’s 2026 free cash flow guidance of $3.625 to $3.925 billion, which represents significant growth, are key factors to watch. The planned dividend increase to $3.78 per share annually and $2 billion in share repurchases signal confidence. The forward P/E of 27x is reasonable for a defensive compounder with this track record.

On the other hand, risks remain if recycled commodity prices keep falling. Q4 2025 saw prices drop to $112 per ton for Republic Services from $153 per ton the prior year, and if integration costs run beyond the $137 million already absorbed in 2025. Republic is the cleaner story operationally, but at a forward P/E of 30x, it prices in more perfection.

Both are quality businesses. Waste Management’s larger discount to its own recent highs is a factor investors may weigh when evaluating entry points.