Live: Will Intel’s Q1 Earnings Keep Fueling its Epic Rally?

Tesla reported last night and shared more details on the company’s partnership with Intel. Here’s what Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan had to say about this partnership (that also includes SpaceX and xAI):

“As we look to continue challenging the state quo, I can think of no better partner than Elon Musk. We recently announced our partnership with SpaceX, xAI and Tesla to support Terafab. Elon and I share a strong conviction that global semiconductor supply is not keeping pace with a rapid acceleration in demand.

We are excited to explore innovative ways to refactor silicon process technology looking for unconventional ways to improve manufacturing efficiency that will eventually lead to a dynamic improvements in the economics of semiconductor manufacturing. A year ago, the conversation about Intel was about whether we could survive.

Today is about how quickly we can add manufacturing capacity and scale our supply to meet enormous demand for our products. This is a fundamentally different company today, and we still have a lot of work ahead. I would like to take this opportunity to thank our many customers, partners, and our hard-working employees across the world for their contributions towards building a new Intel. I remain firmly convinced of and focus on the opportunity ahead for Intel. “

Intel’s conference call has started – here’s what Intel’s CEO said about how the company’s opportunity is now approaching a trillion dollars:

Lip-Bu Tan, CEO of Intel

“Intel is now a very different company than when I first joined over 1 year ago. We have taken and continue to take deliberate steps to rebuild Intel into more competitive and more profitable company. Our cultural transformation is well underway and we are embracing our roots as data-driven, paranoid and engineering-centric company. We are also listening closely to our customers. and putting them at the center of everything we do. In our processes, some of the most vital assets necessary to be successful and to flourish in this era of extraordinary opportunity for the semiconductor industry.

With a stronger balance sheet, new leadership team, resulted and motivated workforce and a renewed focus on engineering execution, we are turning our attention squarely towards innovation to capture opportunities in the near term and to position the company for robust growth in the long term, driven by tremendous demand for AI, the semiconductor industry TAM is now approaching $1 trillion. Intel is well-positioned to benefit from this demand with 3 strategically important assets. “

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Here’s the full track record of recommendations we’ve made:

As you can see – across the past couple years our average recommendation is up 133.6%. We also issued a February 24th recommendation on Intel tht was already up 44.8% before tonight’s earnings.

If you want to follow along, all these recommendations are made on our AI Investor Podcast. You can subscribe (for free!) in your favorite podcast player.

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If you haven’t subscribed to the Podcast, you’ve missed out on some incredible gains, but it’s not too late to follow along. I (Eric Bleeker) host the Podcast and will be filming a new episode tomorrow with a brand-new recommendation.

You can listen to the episode I recommended Intel below.

Intel shares are up 13% as of 4:20 p.m. ET.

Its blowout earnings are the biggest story in earnings released after the bell today. It’s worth noting that the other big AI earnings release came from Comfort Systems. The company delivered EPS of $10.51 versus expectations of $6.81.

Its blowouts across the board for AI companies tonight.

The next event to watch for is Intel’s conference call.

We will provide updates during Intel’s call. To receive them, simply leave this live blog page open and new updates will post automatically. If you’d like, you can come back later tonight and read them once this live blog concludes.

Intel shares are off their highs, but are still up 14% after-hours.

Here’s the key quote from CEO Lip-Bu Tan on the company’s earnings release:

“The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic. This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings,” said Lip-Bu Tan, Intel CEO. “With a solid foundation in place, we are addressing this opportunity by listening to our customers and driving their success with our technical expertise and differentiated IP. This deliberate reset to how we operate drove a sixth consecutive quarter of revenue above our expectations, as well as new and deepened relationships with strategic partners.”

If you’ve been following along, Intel just delivered blowout Q1 earnings.

Here are some figures we’re watching:

• Data Center Revenue Grew 22%: That’s a big beat versus expectations.
• Client Computing Grew 1%: That’s not a high growth rate, but this segment saw a steep decline last quarter. It benefited from rabid demand for CPUs, with companies buying less desirable chips to fuel agentic AI demand.
• Intel Foundry: Grew 16% year-over-year – beating estimates by a large amount. Wall Street expected $4.81 billion in revenue, it delievered $5.42 billion.
• Gross Margins: Hit 41%. Wall Street expected 34.5%. We talked about Intel needing to flex pricing power in our preview of earnings, they did it.
• Guidance: $14.3 billion at the midpoint while Wall Street expected $13.04 billion.

Intel shares were up big so far this year, which meant the company needed blowout earnings to cause a major move up after-hours. Intel just delivered.

Intel’s guidance is for $13.8 to $14.8 billion in revenue next quarter.

Wall Street was expecting $13.06 billion, so guidance is a big beat as well.

Shares are now up 15% with Wall Street having had 5 minutes to digest these earnings. 

It’s a beat across the board for intel. In fact, its their biggest revenue beat in more than 5 years.

Here’s what’s amazing: a big part of this beat was inventory Intel had written-off. In other words: demand for CPUs is so rabid, Intel was able to sell products they had written off previously.

Demand for CPUs is through the roof and even with Intel not having supply for their most in-demand chips, they’re selling chips they thought were worthless like hot cakes.

The market is closed, and Intel earnings are out.

Here is what the company delivered:

• Revenue: $13.58 billion
• EPS: $.29

As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street expected:

• Revenue: $12.43 billion
• EPS: $.01

Foundry revenue was $5.42 billion versus expectations of $4.91 billion. This is a big beat, and shares are immediately jumping by 10%.

We’re just a few minutes away from Intel’s earnings. We will be providing live updates and analysis the moment the earnings hit newswires.

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Intel’s earnings are just 15 minutes away. Here are some market or break areas to watch when their earnings report hits:

1. Focus Less on Last Quarter’s EPS: Wall Street knows that Intel guided to disappointing revenue of $11.7 to $12.7 billion this quarter. Its likely their EPS will be slightly north of breakeven. All this information is already ‘baked’ into the stock. Far more important will be Intel’s guide to next quarter. That will show whether the comapny is making progress on the supply shortages around server CPUs that led to the company announcing poor guidance last quarter.
2. What Will Be Said About Fab Customers?: Intel shares are surging for multiple reasons. First, every CPU company has seen shares surge recently. AMD shares are up big while Arm Holding is up 93% since early February. The second reason is reports that many American companies are considering Intel’s fab. We saw Intel jump recently on news the company would partner with Tesla for their Terafab, what additional commentary will Lip-Bu Tan provide on potential customers tonight?
3. Price Leverage: Wall Street will be looking for clues that Intel can begin exerting more price leverage with CPUs in red-hot demand. What will Intel say about this? Are there any indications of margins rising throughout the year?

Prediction markets are predicting Intel will beat earnings tonight. On Polymarket, the odds are 90% that the company beats expectations of $.00 in adjusted earnings. That’s slightly below the consensus forecast we’re seeing of Intel making $.01 in adjusted earnigns this quarter.

Keep in mind that the biggest reaction to Intel’s earnings will likely come from commentary around 1.) progress with customers in their fab business and 2.) progress made meeting the rapid surge in demand for server CPUs.

We will continue updating this live blog with news and analysis once Intel reports.