Unemployment/Payrolls Should Influence Voters Next Month

The Labor Department is out with the latest round of bad news on unemployment and the change in non-Farm Payrolls data for September.  September’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.6%.  Where this goes awry is that the Labor Department showed that non-Farm Payrolls fell by a sharp -95,000.

Bloomberg had consensus at 9.7% on unemployment and -8,000 on the non-Farm payrolls.  Dow Jones had estimates at -10,000 on the non-Farm Payrolls and 9.7% on unemployment.  The rates given in August were 9.6% unemployment and -54,000 on non-Farm Payrolls.

Private-sector employers added 64,000 jobs in September, but the census workers and state and local government workers saw contraction here.  August and July revisions showed larger declines than original projections as well: -57,000 in August vs. -54,000 and that brings a total of about -218,000 jobs for Q3.   The implication here is that nearly 15 million people can’t find a full-time job.

Construction lost 21,000 jobs and manufacturing lost 6,000 jobs last month.  Average hourly earnings went from $22.66 in August to $22.67 in September.

There is a very simple message here today and that is not one of adding in just some basic commentary.  Today’s jobs report will offer a prediction.  “Change” is still coming, but that change is likely going to be the restoration of a balance of power in the House and Senate elections in a month.

JON C.OGG