Reality Check on Unemployment & Jobs Creation, Ugliness

The Labor Department is out with the newest round of its unemployment and non-Farm payrolls data.  Unlike expectations, it is ugly.  The data for November showed an unemployment rate of 9.8% and non-Farm Payrolls grew by only 39,000 jobs.  Bloomberg had estimates of 9.7% and we saw Dow Jones estimates of 9.6%; and Bloomberg had estimates of 168,000 for the gain in non-Farm payrolls versus a gain of 144,000 expected by Dow Jones.  That is the highest official unemployment report since April.

The private sector added only 50,000 jobs in November, shockingly lower than what prior indications had shown.  Temporary help services rose as did healthcare, but retail trade showed a surprise drop considering the calendar.  Manufacturing lost jobs as well.  The unofficial rate that includes those who have given up on job hunting and those who are either contract or under-employed remained flat at 17%.

Non-Farm payroll employment in October was originally reported as 151,000 and that was revised up to 172,000, following a revised 41,000 decline in September and a 1,000 decrease in August.

Yesterday’s data from Labor showed that weekly jobless claims rose by 26,000 To 436,000 in the November 27 week.  ADP had also previously shown that 79,000 jobs were added to the private sector and the October data was also revised for the better from +43,000 to +82,000.

We also need to consider that there are 2 million more whose benefits just ended.  As far as how the reaction was, the DJIA futures went from being UP about 20 to DOWN about 50 points.

It not too much of a stretch to say this.  The numbers were awful.  In fact, they are awful enough that you might have to wonder if those computer counting errors from the Labor Department.  They get it wrong so often that the other economic data building up to today makes the awful report questionable this morning.

JON C.OGG