Convoluted Unemployment and non-Farm Payrolls Data

The US Labor Department has released the Unemployment data and the change in non-Farm Payrolls for December-2010.  The headline figure on unemployment is 9.4% but the more closely followed figure of the non-Farm Payrolls came in at 103,000.  After strong ADP data geared up this week, the figure is a disappointment despite the headline unemployment report.  There may also be some anomalies here because of another drop in the totals and due to year-end data.

The 9.4% figure compares to a 9.7% expectation on unemployment and against a preliminary November figure reported as 9.8%.  The payrolls figure compares to 150,000 expected from Dow Jones and closer to 175,000 was expected from Reuters.  The private sector jobs was actually a gain of 113,000, offset by a 10,000 government jobs decrease.

If that drop is accurate in the official unemployment rate is accurate, that may be the largest one-month drop since 1998.

Sadly, the translation here is that about 44.3% of those who are unemployed were without a job for longer than six months.  Average hourly earnings rose by $0.03 to $22.78 in December from a level of $22.75 in November while the average hours was flat at 34.3 hours.

The best way to describe today’s data is a mixed bag, leaning toward disappointment.

JON C. OGG