Philly Fed & Leading Indicators Adding to Uncertainty

Two more economic reports are driving traders into more uncertainty this morning.  The so-called Philly Fed was dismal and the ‘not so leading’ Leading Indicators were barely above the red line. See SPDR S&P 500 (AMEX: SPY) daily buy/sell pivots now with the S&P 500 barely above the key 50-day moving average.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey for the month of June came out at a disappointing -16.6 while Bloomberg was calling for a consensus reading of +0.5% and Dow Jones was calling for a flat reading of 0.0 for the month.  This was on the heels of -5.8 in May.

Most of the report was negative as you could imagine: Prices paid was -2.8 but prices received was -6.9 and both were down from the prior month.  The employment situation grew somehow to 1.8 from -1.3 the prior month.  Here is the really bad news, with a drop in each segment: New orders were -18.8, Shipments -16.6, delivery times -15.5, and inventories -8.7.

The report of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board is not exactly leading and much of the data is usually known ahead of time.  Still, traders watch the data.  The report for May was up only 0.3% versus 0.0% expected by Bloomberg. April was actually down -0.1%.  Seven of the ten indicators which make up the index were positive, with the number being skewed somewhat higher because of building permits and the spread in interest rates.  The coincident index was up by 0.2% and the lagging index was up 0.3%.

Markets are continuing to try to find their footing with the DJIA and the S&P 500 down slightly. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 Index was up 7% from the June 4 lows before today’s market open so those daily buy/sell pivots are likely to be just that much more important today.

JON C. OGG