Beyond FOMC, All Eyes on Slew of Payrolls & Employment Data

It is very likely that by the time Ben Bernanke and friends at the Federal Reserve make their Wednesday announcement on rates and on quantitative easing measures that the FOMC will have a very good idea of the bulk of the unemployment and payrolls data due on Friday.  While anything they have will be very preliminary and ballparked, it seems easily plausible that whatever the FOMC decides to say may act as a prelude to Friday’s unemployment.

Before the actual unemployment and payrolls report is released on Friday, we will get to see a whole slew of jobs data from multiple sources ahead of time.  We have also seen some data this week. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell marginally, but the employment component fell to 53.3 in July from 60.4 in June.

Here is what else is in store, with consensus estimates and color if available…

At 7:30 AM EST on Wednesday we have the Challenger Job-Cut Report, but we do not have Bloomberg estimates.

At 8:15 AM EST on Wednesday we have the ADP Employment report, and Bloomberg expects the July figure to be 120,000 (range of 75,000 to 166,000) in July versus 176,000 in June. Dow Jones has an estimate of 108,000.

At 9:00 EST on Wednesday we will get to see some PMI Manufacturing Data for July and at 10:00 AM EST we get to see the ISM Manufacturing Index.  We do not have estimates on the individual components but the reports will contain industry hiring data.

At 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday we get to see the online Help Wanted Index for July but no estimates exist as it is a weak barometer.

At 2:15 PM EST or thereabouts on Wednesday, the FOMC statement will hint at the Fed’s overall view on the jobs market.

At 8:30 AM EST on Thursday we get the last weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department which will show the last Labor Department bias.  Bloomberg is calling for 370,000 versus the surprise 353,000 a week ago. Dow Jones is also calling for 370,000 as of now.

The formal jobs report is due at 8:30 AM EST on Friday and the Bloomberg consensus estimate is 100,000 non-Farm Payrolls created.  Private Payrolls are expected to be up 110,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 8.2%.  Dow Jones is calling for 95,000 in nonfarm payrolls and 8.2% unemployment.  Be advised that the nonfarm payrolls rose by a modest 80,000 in June, and that was after paltry gains of 77,000 in May and only 68,000 in April.

JON C. OGG