Bloomberg was calling for unemployment to be flat at 6.3% in June versus 6.3% in May. The estimates for nonfarm payrolls were 211,000 and private sector payrolls of 210,000. The unofficial expectation should have ratcheted higher after Wednesday’s ADP report, even when you consider TrimTabs being more cautious.
Other labor Department data was in line with expectations. The average workweek was flat at 34.5 hours and hourly earnings rose 0.2% as expected. Here is a snapshot of the prior “employment” related reports or reports that included national employment related components in them over the past 10 days:
- ADP shocked with a stronger private sector payrolls gain of a whopping 281,000 jobs from May to June. Bloomberg was expecting only 213,000 for June, and the May reading was only 179,000.
- TrimTabs tempered the ADP report showing that the economy added 174,000 jobs in June, the slowest month in terms of jobs growth since February.
- The ISM Manufacturing report for June showed that employment growth was very soft, at only 52.8.
- The PMI Manufacturing Index for June signaled that employment strengthened to 54.0, but suggesting that growth here currently remains no better than moderate.
- The Conference Board’s June consumer confidence figures showed a better jobs picture last week. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” rose slightly to 14.7% from 14.2%, and those claiming jobs are “hard to get” fell slightly to 31.8% from 32.2%. Consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead rose to 16.3% from 15.2%, and those expecting fewer jobs fell to 18.7% from 18.9%.
Stocks are higher, but not in any serious manner so far. S&P 500 futures were up one point and DJIA futures were up 14 after the news broke. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose again to almost 2.63% after the news, up from 2.52% just on Monday.
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