False Optimism About Jobs

According to a new poll from Gallup:

Twenty-six percent of Americans say now is a good time to find a quality job — the highest since March 2008. This is also up from 22% in March and from 21% a year ago, but not much different than the 25% who said the same in January.

At the same time, 71% say now is a bad time to find a quality job, down from 74% in March and about on par with the 70% in January. At least eight in 10 Americans believed it was a bad time to get a quality job during all of 2009 through 2011, and for many months in 2012. Seventy-seven percent said it was a bad time to find a quality job a year ago.

The prospects for work have been terrible for so long that being less terrible has become a cause for belief in what is really a tiny recovery — or no real recovery at all.

The data on American economic optimism has sent false signals across several broad areas of confidence measures. First among these is housing. In some markets, which include Phoenix and Las Vegas, home prices could recover 20% this year. That rebound leaves aside the fact that home prices in some of these markets dropped 60% from their 2005/2006 peaks. Fewer mortgages maybe underwater, but the total has stayed well into the millions. Foreclosures may be down, but they are still high by long-term measures. Morale may have improved, but the beatings have continued.

Another false notion about how Americans are better off financially is the price of gas, a big marker because so much of the population drives. If a $4 price is the benchmark, then the current price of $3.50 is an improvement. Left out of that equation is that the price for a gallon of regular nationwide was $1.50 just 10 years ago. By most measures, average real wages in America have not moved up at all since then, and may have fallen a little.

Spread throughout public opinion is the notion of sharp improvements in the economy. That may be accurate as measured against five years ago. But going back a bit further, the picture is entirely different and, historically, more accurate.

Methodology: Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted April 4 to 7, 2013, with a random sample of 1,005 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.