When Jobs Reports Conflict: ADP Jobs Growth Strong, TrimTabs Sees Awful Jobs Market

Either number could be considered an estimate-changing report. Friday’s unemployment rate is expected to have fallen to 7.5% in July from 7.6% in June. Its nonfarm payrolls is expected to be up 175,000, and the payrolls from the more important private sector are expected to be up by 187,000, according to Bloomberg.

Imagine what happens when economists see one number come in much higher at 200,000 and then one come in at a dismal 23,000. Now Friday’s report is a real wild card. We also have an FOMC decision on interest rates to deal with as well, and the market will be hanging on every word to see if Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve will start tapering their bond purchases of $85 billion each month sooner rather than later.

TrimTabs showed that July was the worst month since September 2010, when the U.S. lost 65,000 jobs. TrimTabs also reported that wages and salaries in July rose by only 0.4% year-over year, and they think that is consistent with an economy that is close to stalling. TrimTabs points out that its data are historically more relevant because its reports on the jobs estimates are based on daily income tax deposits into the U.S. Treasury.

Keep in mind that the confidence numbers have been mixed. Also need to keep in mind that if economic news is too strong, particularly on the labor reports, then Bernanke and the Federal Reserve will be perceived as having enough justification to begin tapering that $85 billion per month in bond purchases. After a while, they even will have justification to begin raising interest rates.