Big Jump in Jobless Claims Over Christmas

The last formal employment release of 2015 was the weekly jobless claims report from the U.S. Department of Labor. Thursday’s report was a bit unusual in that claims rose almost 20,000 to 287,000. Still, this included the Christmas week, and there are many companies that brought in full-time people on a temporary basis. Bloomberg was calling for a consensus of 270,000 in jobless claims.

The prior week’s reading of 267,000 was now trumped by what may turn out to be the highest jobless claims reading since summer.

Another view is the four-week average, which smooths out the reading’s volatility. The four-week average rose by 4,500 to 277,000 claims, also the highest reading since summer.

Continuing jobless claims come with a one-week lag, and this is what we refer to as the army of the unemployed. Those continuing claims rose by 3,000 to 2.198 million.

The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
[recirclink id=303535]
Traders and investors are facing very light trading volumes this week, and the year is on the verge of not having a continued gain in a bull market that is now almost seven years old. All things being equal, equity futures were lower ahead of this report and weak after the open. It is unlikely that the big jump in weekly jobless claims will take much of that blame by the end of the day.

As long as unemployment stays at or close to 5.0%, the Federal Reserve and Chair Janet Yellen likely will continue to be poised to gradually raise interest rates in 2016.