Weekly Jobless Claims Back to July Highs

Initial weekly jobless claims were up 7,000 to 284,000 in the week of January 9. Claims have not been this high since way back in early July. This also came over the top of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 275,000.

Ultimately, these numbers all show pressure relative to December and hint at a less strong employment report for January. Next week’s data on initial claims, which will cover the sample week of the January employment report, will be closely watched.

The running four-week average also tracks back to the July highs as well, up 3,000 to 278,750. There were no special factors behind the rise but seasonal adjustments at the turn of the year.

Continuing claims, in lagging data for the week of January 2, also showed pressure, up by a sizable 29,000 for a second straight week to 2.263 million. This is the highest level since mid-August. The four-week average is up 5,000 to 2.224 million, and this is the highest reading since mid-September.

The unemployment rate for insured workers is just slightly higher, up one-tenth to a still very low 1.7%.
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According to the report:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 26 were in Alaska (4.9), Montana (3.2), New Jersey (2.9), Pennsylvania (2.8), West Virginia (2.8), Connecticut (2.7), Illinois (2.6), Minnesota (2.6), Wyoming (2.6), Massachusetts (2.5), Nevada (2.5), and Rhode Island (2.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 2 were in New York (+15,090), Georgia (+12,139), Pennsylvania (+11,216), Alabama (+3,272), and Wisconsin (+3,266), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-3,633), California (-2,191), Puerto Rico (-1,718), Ohio (-1,428), and Maryland (-1,061).